
Interesting and useful (if you're a football fanatic and/or a fantasy football aficinado) analysis on the impact of weather on specific aspects of fantasy football point scoring.
From an article (Lab Test: The Weather) posted yesterday in fantasysharks.com.
Following is how you interpret the values in the grid:
In football there are too many variables and not a lot of data, so use this ranking table carefully. Every 1 represents a change of about 5%, relative to what the player does normally, so just a 1 or 2 won't usually be significant. Like all fantasy football metrics, I suggest only using the strongest measured effects (+/- 3) in your regular decision making, and the lesser effects only in the closest decisions if at all.
And, some general rules of thumb:
The Shrinkage Factor - In case you missed that Seinfeld episode, when you're cold, your blood vessels narrow and muscles contract to conserve body heat, which means less flexibility and thus less agility. These effects are especially pronounced in the extremities, which means we could find problems relating to the hands in particular.
Rain outside - It's no secret that rain and snow can make a football hard to hold and see, and dirt difficult to run on.
Rain inside - Up in the sky, when warm air meets cold, we often get rain. When you step outside of your warm home in winter, basically the same thing happens: The cold air you breathe meets the warm air in your body, creating moisture. Great for fish, bad for us. This is worse if you're breathing fast, because the air has less time to warm as it passes. If the air is humid, there's also a bit less breathable air. This points to slower play and tests of endurance.
Freezing and Melting Points - We homo sapiens sapiens (yes, we're twice as wise as those other homo sapiens) are substantially made of water. Any performance drop-off should probably be most pronounced somewhere below freezing point, 32° F, 0° C, or a sizzling 273° Kelvin, as you prefer. Hot or cold, our body tries to maintain a steady temperature of about 98.6° inside and 91° on the skin. Add on 10° for all the running, and even slightly summery weather in the early season could cause problems too.
Advantage: Fat guys - Football is mostly a winter sport, the fat under your skin keeps you warm, and some of these guys are downright twiggy. Lean muscle is also particularly rich in water. Whatever cold downside we find, it could be more pronounced in the guys who are skinny or especially low in body fat.
Diversity, you betcha! - All moose aside, the U.S. hosts a diverse range of climates. Just look at the top universities in NFL alumni, and between Notre Dame in northern Indiana and U.S.C. in Los Angeles alone, you've got a temperature difference of up to 55° during football season. With players from all over the country and parts of Europe, there are trends in individual regions, teams, and players. There's too many to cover them all here, but I strongly suggest you look at performance history for any players headed for fantasy playoff matchups in the North before it's too late.
So, for tomorrow night's Thanksgiving night game in Philadelphia between the Arizona Cardinals and the Philadelphia Eagles:
Temperature (wind chill) 34 to 36 degrees. LIght wind/no snow.
Weather impact? Neglible
Impact of an aging Donavan McNabb? Use your best judgement!