I've added yet another 2009 Hurricane forecast to the mix -- this one from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR). TSR's forecast is on the high end of the four predictions that are currently publicly available, but still trends higher than the long term average and lower than the 10-year average. The graph (above) compares the consensus prediction to the long and short term averages.
Following are all the forecasts I've collected to date. Please forward along any other forecasts that you may find (or, feel free to give me your personal forecast) and I'll include them in the consensus. At the end of the season we'll grade the outlooks to see which came closest. I'm "betting" on the 10-year average.
For reference: pasted below is my commentary from the January 2, 2009 update.
January 2, 2009 Update Below:
Yet another forecast of the 2009 season was released to the public this week, this one from Weather Research Center, Inc.
As was true last year their prediction for the number of named storms and hurricanes is well below the consensus and the 10-year moving average.
For the record, my preference
for this year (and every year) is to use the 10-year moving average as
a predictor for the upcoming hurricane season. In most cases this will
give you a good -- if not better -- estimation of the number of storms
than what comes out of the various government, commercial, and academic
organizations.
Copied below is a summary of
the forecasts released to date for the 2009 season. I expect there
will be 3 to 4 more to come out over the next few months and will
update the graph as they become available.
So far -- in terms of number
of storms -- the consensus is pointing to a less active year than the
10-year average and last year. Just based on looking at the
statistics, and considering the potential of another La Nina forming (a
"bullish" sign for hurricane formation), it appears that the
forecasters may be under forecasting the threat this year.
Time will tell.
In the meantime I'll continue
to collect and aggregate the plethora of predictions that will be
coming out over the next few months.
