G2 Weather Intelligence

The Unintended Consequences of Changing Nature’s Balance

I read with great interest this recent article in the New York Times:  The Unintended Consequences of Changing Nature’s Balance.

It's a very instructive example of the unequal and unexpected consequences that can happen when we attempt to "manage" the balance of nature.  Here's a snippet from the article:

With its craggy green cliffs and mist-laden skies, Macquarie Island — halfway between Australia and Antarctica — looks like a nature lover’s Mecca. But the island has recently become a sobering illustration of what can happen when efforts to eliminate an invasive species end up causing unforeseen collateral damage.

In 1985, Australian scientists kicked off an ambitious plan: to kill off non-native cats that had been prowling the island’s slopes since the early 19th century. The program began out of apparent necessity — the cats were preying on native burrowing birds. Twenty-four years later, a team of scientists from the Australian Antarctic Division and the University of Tasmania reports that the cat removal unexpectedly wreaked havoc on the island ecosystem.

With the cats gone, the island’s rabbits (also non-native) began to breed out of control, ravaging native plants and sending ripple effects throughout the ecosystem. The findings were published in the Journal of Applied Ecology online in January.

Ok.  So this is bad.  A well intentioned, but completely FUBAR effort.   Still, this problem is confined to Macquarie Island (where?) and the players seem to have a handle on the mistakes and an understanding of the solution.  Problem solved, lesson learned, paper published.

Now, fast forward to today and the on-going efforts to "geoengineer" (that's right, geoengineer) climate change solutions.  These are technologies that are being developed to offset the effect of CO2 forcing and mitigate global warming --  think of them as the atmospheric equivalent of removing the cats from Macquarie Island.

Frightened yet? 

Following is a list of technologies currently under consideration and/or development (from Wired Magazine, Scientists Rank Global Cooling Hacks): 

• Stratospheric aerosols Inject enough sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere to reflect the small percentage of sunlight necessary to offset increased warming caused by carbon dioxide. This scheme is akin to the cooling induced by large volcanic explosions.

• Albedo increase: cloud, mechanical Manufacture sea salt spray to change the way clouds form over the ocean to increase their reflectivity.

• Albedo increase: desert Cover the earth's non-sandy deserts with a material composed of a white polyethylene top and an aluminum bottom. That would increase the albedo of those surfaces, cooling the earth.

• Air capture and storage Use chemical processes to pull carbon dioxide out of the air and sequester it in geological reservoirs.

• Ocean phosphorous addition Add phosphorous intentionally to the oceans, fertilizing the water, and creating more carbon-munching life there. Eventually, those creatures or the creatures that eat them die and drift into the deep ocean, taking that carbon with them.

• Albedo increase: grassland Breed or genetically engineer shinier plants to increase the reflectivity of the world's savannahs and shrublands.

• Bio-char production Create charcoal from biomass, effectively sequestering the carbon in the plant matter, and bury it.

• Carbonate addition to oceans Add carbonate to the oceans, increasing their carbon intake and fighting ocean acidification.

• Albedo increase: cropland Breed or genetically engineer shinier crops to increase the reflectivity of the world's farmed land.

• Ocean nitrogen fertilization Add nitrogen intentionally to the oceans, fertilizing the water, and creating more carbon-munching life there. Eventually, those creatures or the creatures that eat them die and drift into the deep ocean, taking that carbon with them.

• Iron fertilization Add iron intentionally to the oceans, fertilizing the water, and creating more carbon-munching life there. Eventually, those creatures or the creatures that eat them die and drift into the deep ocean, taking that carbon with them.

• Afforestation/reforestation Plant massive amounts of trees across the Earth and count on them to sequester more carbon dioxide naturally.

• Albedo increase: human settlement Make the areas where humans live considerably more reflective by, say, painting roofs white.

• Enhance upwelling Bring nutrient-rich water up from the deeps to foster carbon-using life at the surface of the ocean.

• Albedo increase: cloud, biological Add dimethyl sulfide to a patch of ocean to create more microorganisms that act as formation sites for water droplets and eventually lead to clouds. 

• Enhance downwelling Cool down huge amounts of water with large pumps to form and thicken sea ice that would in turn cool the sea water. That water would descend to the depths, taking a bit of extra carbon with it.

• Albedo increase: urban areas Make cities considerably more reflective by, say, painting roofs white.

Be afraid.  Be very afraid. 

Unless, of course, you're the Macquarie Island equivalent of a rabbit.

 

A River Runs Through It: Glacier Melt in Greenland

Short video from Discovery Channel UK showing glacier melt in Greenland.   A little over-the-top in the drama department, but worth a look.

On Climate Change: BS is a Bipartisan Virtue

"Exaggeration misleads the credulous and offends the perceptive."  ~Eliza Cook

"I've told you a million times not to exaggerate."  ~Anon

Passions run hot on climate change. 

As a result,  the truth is often overwhelmed by vitriol and agenda setting and partisan politics.  The two sides are completely at odds and the debate is skewed and cheapened - on both sides - by seemingly outrageous statements. 

Andrew Revkin from the NY Times has a great perspective on this in his analysis:  In Debate on Climate Change, Exaggeration Is a Common Pitfall.

In the effort to shape the public’s views on global climate change, hyperbole is an ever-present temptation on all sides of the debate.

Earlier this month, former Vice President Al Gore and the Washington Post columnist George Will made strong public statements about global warning — from starkly divergent viewpoints.

Mr. Gore, addressing a hall filled with scientists in Chicago, showed a slide that illustrated a sharp spike in fires, floods and other calamities around the world and warned the audience that global warming “is creating weather-related disasters that are completely unprecedented.”

Mr. Will, in a column attacking what he said were exaggerated claims about global warming’s risks, chided climate scientists for predicting an ice age three decades ago and asserted that a pause in warming in recent years and the recent expansion of polar sea ice undermined visions of calamity ahead.

Both men, experts said afterward, were guilty of inaccuracies and overstatements.

In this debate, who do you think "exaggerates" more on this issue:  global warming proponents or skeptics?

Photo courtesy of:  dukematthew2000's

 

2009 Hurricane Season Update Three

I've added yet another 2009 Hurricane forecast to the mix -- this one from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).  TSR's forecast is on the high end of the four predictions that are currently publicly available, but still trends higher than the long term average and lower than the 10-year average.  The graph (above) compares the consensus prediction to the long and short term averages.

Following are all the forecasts I've collected to date.  Please forward along any other forecasts  that you may find (or, feel free to give me your personal forecast) and I'll include them in the consensus.  At the end of the season we'll grade the outlooks to see which came closest.  I'm "betting" on the 10-year average. 

For reference: pasted below is my commentary from the January 2, 2009 update.

January 2, 2009 Update Below:

Yet another forecast of the 2009 season was released to the public this week, this one from  Weather Research Center, Inc.

As was true last year their prediction for the number of named storms and hurricanes is well below the consensus and the 10-year moving average.  

For the record, my preference for this year (and every year) is to use the 10-year moving average as a predictor for the upcoming hurricane season.  In most cases this will give you a good -- if not better -- estimation of the number of storms than what comes out of the various government, commercial, and academic organizations.  

For an interesting analysis of the "skill" of long range hurricane forecasts, check out the following article from Carl Bialik, the "Numbers Guy" from the Wall Street Journal:  In Hurricane Forecasting, Science Is Far From Exact

Copied below is a summary of the forecasts released to date for the 2009 season.  I expect there will be 3 to 4 more to come out over the next few months and will update the graph as they become available.

So far -- in terms of number of storms -- the consensus is pointing to a less active year than the 10-year average and last year.   Just based on looking at the statistics, and considering the potential of another La Nina forming (a "bullish" sign for hurricane formation), it appears that the forecasters may be under forecasting the threat this year.

Time will tell.  

 

In the meantime I'll continue to collect and aggregate the plethora of predictions that will be coming out over the next few months.

Eye on the National Weather Service

Ever wonder what goes on at a typical  National Weather Service office?  Check out the following short video from the Washington Post:

Breaking Out of the Box: 99¢ Only Stores to Retake Texas

I was fortunate enough to attend the first annual Wharton Hedge Fund Conference in Philadelphia last week thanks to the generosity of my friends at Seeking Alpha dot com. 

It was a terrific conference with great speakers and I was able to -- for at least one day -- imagine what it might be like to be a wicked-smart MBA candidate at the Wharton Business School.  Alas, but for my age and IQ it could have been me.  But I digress.

For me, the most impactful speaker of the day was Mark Fisher, the Founder and CEO of MBF Clearing, one of the financial industry’s leading Futures Clearing Merchants (FCM).

Mark is a trader’s trader:  fast-talking, colorful, no BS, frenetic, uber-confident, long on energy, short on patience.    He made a lot (a lot!) of good practical points, but the mantra he kept repeating regarding his trading philosophy, the one thing that resonated the most with me, was this overused cliché:  “think outside of the box.”

Mark’s point:  markets aren’t rational, they move on psychology and you can’t make money if you think like everybody else.    He takes a Constanzian approach to trading:  always bet the opposite of conventional thinking.  

As a meteorologist who advises companies and investors on how the weather will shape consumer spending and correspondingly, retail sales volatility, I pretty much live outside the box which is, I guess, why I was so impressed with Mark’s presentation.  

So what does any of this have to do with 99¢ Only Stores (NYSE : NDN), the weather, and out-of-the-box thinking?  

NDN management recently made the decision to reject the bid by Dave Gold, Chairman of the company, to buy their Texas stores and have suspended plans to exit from Texas because of a “significant improvement in January sales results.”   

Here’s what they said:  

CITY OF COMMERCE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- 99¢ Only Stores® (NYSE:NDN) announced today that its Board of Directors has decided to suspend the Company’s exit from its Texas market for up to six months to re-evaluate its Texas operations in light of a significant improvement in January sales results and the potential beneficial opportunities resulting from a recessionary economy.   (Source:  Gridstone Research)

This may have been a very prescient decision by the board.  Why? 

The weather.  Yep, I said it.

Going into the spring selling season, when weather once again becomes a significant driver of consumer activity, the weather expectation – both on a comparable basis to last year and to normal – is pointing to a very favorable retail selling environment in Texas over the next few months, particularly in March.

Last March it rained in Texas.  A lot. In fact, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) it was the 20th wettest March on record.  Rain has a direct impact on traffic into stand-alone stores and results in significant disruptions in sales patterns.   Last year’s rainy and sometimes cool Texas weather overlapped with a very early Easter holiday and literally threw a wet blanket on Easter sales.  

Compounding the issue were gas prices that were through the roof, food price inflation, and the beginning of the precipitous slide in consumer sentiment.  It was a month fraught with headwind and the headlines tell the story:

March Retail Sales Hit 13-Year Low
Gas Prices, Job Insecurity, Cold Weather Hampered Consumer Enthusiasm

(AP) The nation's retailers reported the weakest March sales in 13 years on Thursday as consumers - fretting about mounting economic problems and enduring a frigid Easter - limited their shopping to food and other essentials.

On a comparable basis, when you factor in both the physical (weather) and economic environment, it looks like a layup for NDN in Texas over the next month and perhaps beyond.   

Here’s why:

•    Warmer and drier weather leading to increased consumer activity and springtime selling.   In fact, much warmer and drier weather this January may have contributed materially to the strength that resulted in the strategy change.

•    Gas prices a buck and half cheaper than last year 

•    The promise of a slightly fatter paycheck thanks to the Obama stimulus plan
 
•    Selling “value focused” merchandise during the worst economy since the 30s 

NDN’s board plans to monitor sales in the Texas market over the next six months before making a final determination as to the disposition of the business, specifically:

The Board anticipates that if sales trends become sufficiently strong to support a profitable business model with an acceptable return on investment, any long term plans would likely involve building a small local dedicated team of buyers, senior operations management and financial analysis support in Texas.
(source:  Gridstone Research).

From a holistic and yes, out-of-the-box perspective, it appears likely that NDN will see continued strength in Texas over the next few months resulting in a retrenchment and perhaps expansion into that very large market.   

Photo courtesy of:  strangelv

 

A Load of Hot Air

No matter your politics or your views on global warming (and there is a correlation),  you have to hand it to the Heartland Institute for the following video.  Everybody loves a good fart joke -- no matter your politics.

Long Global Warming? It Might be Time to Reconsider

Dr John Holdren , Harvard professor, head of the Woods Hole Research Center, and President Obama’s newly appointed Science Adviser, doesn’t much like the term global warming.  It’s not descriptive enough.  It implies a linear and manageable and even benign phenomenon.  It’s just too soft.

He prefers the term global climatic disruption. 

Per Dr. Holdren, the changes being predicted (and observed) around the globe are  “rapid, non-uniform, affecting everything about climate and … almost entirely harmful.”    They are, in a word, disruptive. 

And now – on the heels of the Australian fires and the UK deep freeze -- we may be in for even more disruption.    This time the disruptions (economic, political, and physical) may actually be the result of a slow down or even reversal of the rapid warming trends of the past 25 or so years.   The reason:  ocean temperatures.

In April of 2008, NASA confirmed the onset of the early stages of a large-scale climate event:  the cool-phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation  (PDO).   The PDO is a long-term (20 to 30 year) fluctuation of the temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.  Since approximately 1977 we have been under the influence of the warm phase of the PDO and this has, arguably, contributed to the rapid warming of the earth since the early 80s.  

Here’s how NASA describes it:

“The comings and goings of El Niño, La Niña and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are part of a longer, ongoing change in global climate,” said Josh Willis, a JPL oceanographer and climate scientist. Sea level rise and global warming due to increases in greenhouse gases can be strongly affected by large natural climate phenomenon such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. “In fact,” said Willis, “these natural climate phenomena can sometimes hide global warming caused by human activities. Or they can have the opposite effect of accentuating it.”  (emphasis added)

So what does this phase shift in the temperatures in the Pacific Ocean mean to our weather and climate and, more importantly, to the economic activity that is directly influenced by the weather?

According to an analysis by Joe D'Aleo (an expert meteorologist, noted climate change skeptic, and principal at www.icecap.com), there is a very strong correlation between the PDO index and temperatures in the US -- as the ocean temperatures warm and cool, the general climate patterns warm and cool as well.   

The implications of this relationship are clear – the transition to a cool phase of the PDO could conceivably lead to a long-term cooling trend that results in weather conditions across North America that are more similar to the weather experienced during the 1950s through the 1970s.

This is not to say that global warming/climate change is – as Senator Jim Inhofe described it – the “greatest hoax every perpetrated on the American people.” 

On the contrary, a reversal or slow-down in the rate of warming over the next 15 to 20 years, if it happens, would be reasonable given the very long periods of time being projected and the “non-uniform” and disruptive nature of climate change.  

In the very near term – i.e. the next 2 years – even a perceived return to colder winters and shorter summers could have a tremendous impact politically and economically, especially in the US.   As the republican minority struggles to find wedge issues ahead of the 2010 elections, another cold winter and cool summer would provide red meat for the skeptical faithful and could drive a huge headwind for the Obama administration’s climate change and sustainability efforts.

The implications for the energy sector and the nascent green industry in this scenario could be significant.

Climatic disruption?  Indeed.

Photo courtesy of julianb

Storm Chaser Video from Yesterday's Tornado Outbreak in Oklahoma

Power to the People: Google PowerMeter to Help Consumers Manage Electricity Usage

Doing no evil ...

From the folks at google.org, the philanthropic arm of the tech giant: the Google PowerMeter.  Tool to help consumers monitor and manage their power usage.  Check out the 1-minute video. 

Exciting stuff on the face of it.

Still, cynics will wonder:  is this truly a philanthropic effort or does Google have a big brother-ish bottom-line motive? 

Your thoughts?