G2 Weather Intelligence

Enjoy the Weather!

We Live in Exponential Times

Shelly Palmer showed the video (below) as lead in to his Get Digital Seminar in Manhattan last Thursday. 

Watch it! 

The world is changing in an amazing and unbelievably rapid fashion and, depending on your point of view, this represents either a tremendous opportunity or a terrifying risk.

Add to these "exponential" demographic and technology changes the challenges associated with:

1. our current economic situation and
   
2. the long-term risks associated with climate change
   

and it's apparent we are, in fact, actualizing the (purported) ancient Chinese curse:  "May you live in interesting times."  

As an interesting side note (for us optimists), while the origins of the authenticity of the Chinese curse noted above are in doubt, there is no doubt about the the authenticity of this one:   

"The times produce their heroes" (shí shì zào yīng xióng) 

Indeed! 

Enjoy the video ... and give us your thoughts.

"I am not here to give you a dogma. A dogma makes one certain.” -- Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh

Read a great post from Paul Kedrosky in today's edition of Seeking Alpha.   Great topic.  Although he's referring to the  "screechyness" on the blogosphere related to our current economic fix, it reminded me of the passion and venom and (yes) screechyness  surrounding the climate change debate.   Here's Paul's article:

Is the Econoblogosphere Decoupling from Reality?

"While the decoupling argument didn't work in the case of the U.S.'s major trading partners, I increasingly wonder if the econoblogosphere hasn't decoupled from the economy. There is a growing fixed and inflexible point of view out there, an unwillingness to consider facts that don't match scenarios concocted some time ago (most of them bearish, of course, but some bullish too).

Now, I'm not saying things are all sunshine and light. Far from it. While I expected a strong rally in here somewhere, I'm still of the view that we see further weakness later in the year. I'm simply pointing out that when the facts change, most people should as well -- even if the facts that changed aren't the ones they have been ranting about. I wonder if the econoblogosphere is capable of doing that given its origins in dogged fixations centered on particular worldviews and outcomes.

Does anyone feel the same way in looking around recently? I am finding much of the commentary awfully screechy and, well, decoupled."

Tornado Video Part 2

Tornado! Owen and Nick's Spring 2009 Tour Continues

Slides from My March 24, 2009 Investor Conference Call: Spring 2009 and Hurricane Outlook

The Impact of Weather on Retail Sales in Spring 2009 and the 2009 Hurricane Season Forecast

View more presentations from Paul Walsh.

National Weather Service (US) Releases Spring 2009 Weather Outlook: Severe Flooding Risk Projected for the Upper Midwest

The US National Weather Service released their official Spring weather outlook on Thursday. 

The big story and major concern continues to be the flood risk in the upper Midwest which they are warning could rival the Grand Forks flooding of 1997.

Flooding in the upper Midwest, which could rival the high water levels experienced in 2006 and possibly 1997, and continued drought in the South and West are among the highlights in NOAA’s National Weather Service Spring Outlook issued today.

More to come on the potential economic impact of this as events unfold.

What Price Airline Safety? Frequent Fliers Need to Watch this Video

Well done video on the FAA's proposal to remove meteorologists from Air Traffic control centers.  They hope to save $2 million (out of a multi-billion dollar budget) a year by consolidating mets into two centralized locations.  Controllers and meteorologists are raising serious safety issues.

It's a fairly long (~6 minutes) video but worth watching -- especially if you're a frequent flier.

AccuWeather's Initial 2009 Hurricane Outlook

Following is a short video summarizing  AccuWeather's 2009 hurricane outlook. 

2009 Hurricane Forecast Update: 70% Chance of a Storm Hitting the Louisiana or Alabama Coast

Posted above is the latest prediction from the Weather Research Center.  The highlighted areas represent  (I believe) the probability of a land falling hurricane over the course of the entire hurricane season.

According the to the WRC, the central Gulf Coast will have the highest risk compared to normal.  During a typical year, this area has a 59% probability of a hurricane strike.  The WRC is pegging this year's probability of a hurricane strike (in Louisiana and Alabama) at 70%. 

Following is how they describe the methodology used in developing the forecast:

The Houston-based Weather Research Center is one of a handful of organizations that make seasonal hurricane predictions. WRC uses a model called Orbital Cyclone Strike Index (OCSI) which uses the solar cycle [an indication of the solar system’s orbit] to predict the risk for coastal residents each hurricane season. The OCSI model is based on the premise that there are orbital influences that are reflected in the global circulation pattern on the sun as well as the global circulation pattern of the earth. These orbital influences are reflected in the 11.1 year sun spot cycle.

To read their entire assessment, click here:   Weather Research Center 2009 Hurricane Outlook

For my analysis of all the publicly released hurricanes, click here:  2009 Hurricane Season Update Three

I'll be updating the consensus forecast later this week following the public release (3/18) of AccuWeather's  initial outlook.