G2 Weather Intelligence

Why Did God Create Economists?

... to make weathermen look good. 

cue rim shot.

My favorite opening joke when I give presentations at industry conferences. 

An oldie but a goody that was today (sort of) validated by "Helicopter" Ben Bernanke at the Boston University commencement and reported in the Wall Street Journal.

“Like weather forecasters, economic forecasters must deal with a system that is extraordinarily complex, that is subject to random shocks, and about which our data and understanding will always be imperfect.

In some ways, predicting the economy is even more difficult than forecasting the weather, because an economy is not made up of molecules whose behavior is subject to the laws of physics, but rather of human beings who are themselves thinking about the future and whose behavior may be influenced by the forecasts that they or others make.”

Looks like I'll need to find some new material.

The Lastest from Climate Central -- GEORGIA: Coal and Carbon

2009 Hurricane Season Outlook: Conference Call Tomorrow at 10 AM EDT

A Global Hunter Security and G2 Weather Intelligence production with special guest speaker Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist.

Topic:  Updated 2009 Hurricane outlook with a special focus on the Gulf and the latest in risk management strategies.  30-minute telephone conference call.

If you would like to attend, contact me (paul.walsh@g2weather) and I will forward along dial-in information.

Our Incredibly Shrinking World

The photo above is from one of my appearances on CNBC's Squawk on The Street last summer.  I'm on the right sitting next to Erin Burnett; appearing with me on the segment was Jeff Rubin who was -- at the time -- the Chief Economist for CIBC.  Jeff is sitting on the left, next to Mark Haines.

Jeff recently left CIBC and published an interesting new book titled Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization.

An interesting read in that Jeff is predicting a secular return to  $4 to $7 gas prices which, he believes, will result in a dramatic -- but not necessarily bad -- change  in the way we all live our lives.  

An outgrowth of this scenario would be a much broader embrace of climate change-related initiatives. To paraphrase Jeff from an appearance this morning on Morning Joe -- "Archie Bunker will be getting in bed with Al Gore."  This is a bad visual but an interesting analogy.

You can view the Squawk on the Street Segment here: 

$5 gas from Gustav?

Following is the editorial overview of Jeff's book (from Amazon.com):

Product Description
An internationally renowned energy expert has written a book essential for every American–a galvanizing account of how the rising price and diminishing availability of oil are going to radically change our lives. Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller is a powerful and provocative book that explores what the new global economy will look like and what it will mean for all of us.

In a compelling and accessible style, Jeff Rubin reveals that despite the recent recessionary dip, oil prices will skyrocket again once the economy recovers. The fact is, worldwide oil reserves are disappearing for good. Consequently, the amount of food and other goods we get from abroad will be curtailed; long-distance driving will become a luxury and international travel rare. Globalization as we know it will reverse. The near future will be a time that, in its physical limits, may resemble the distant past.

But Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller is a hopeful work about how we can benefit–personally, politically, and economically–from this new reality. American industries such as steel and agriculture, for instance, will be revitalized. As well, Rubin prescribes priorities for President Obama and other leaders, from imposing carbon tariffs that will increase competition and productivity, to investing in mass transit instead of car-clogged highways, to forging “green” alliances between labor and management that will be good for both business and the air we breathe.

Most passionately, Rubin recommends ways every citizen can secure this better life for himself, actions that will end our enslavement to chain-store taste and strengthen our communities and timeless human values.

Florida in the Cross Hairs: 30% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation

It never fails, following a flurry of downward revisions in the 2009 Hurricane season,  up pops a very early threat of a tropical cyclone bearing down on Florida.

That said, the odds of formation are very low and, even if it did get up to tropical storm strength (TS Ana), there is very little correlation between an early season event and an active overall year. 

Never-the-less, an interesting wake up call and a heart-thumper for weather geeks and owners of beach front property in Florida. 

More on the latest hurricane forecasts ("Are we putting the CAT back in the bag?") in a post later this week.

Following is the latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center:

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that an area of
disturbed weather has formed over eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the adjacent waters. Slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two as it moves generally northward at 10 to 15 mph.

An Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the system on Tuesday, if necessary. There is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

The "G2" on CO2 From Climate Central

From Climate Central: a well done basic primer on how CO2 in the atmosphere is measured and monitored.

Just-in-time consumers -- the new normal in retail

Retailers have been -- over the past 10 years or so -- paying more and more attention to the tangible impact weather has on sales of "seasonal" categories. 

Wal*Mart, Kohls, Bloomingdales, Ross, and many others all use some form of weather and climate data to help optimize assortments, improve receipt timing, inform pricing decisions, and tailor marketing actions. 

The recent dramatic economic downturn, as noted in the article below, has transformed buy-now shoppers into just-in-time shoppers and this is making the issue related to weather and climate "optimization" even more critical.

Finally, the impact of global warming is already having a meaningful impact on the start of the fall season (delayed) and the end of the summer season (extended).  Yet another reason for fashion retailers to become increasingly more nimble in their ability to react to changing seasons and increasingly unpredictable weather.

Good posting on the subject from Epps Consulting (click the link to get the full article):

Retailers try to keep fashions in sync with the weather

Shoppers sticking to essentials

Rules of retail shifting to accommodate new realities

NEW YORK — When times were good, retailers sold sundresses in February and heavy wool sweaters in August.

Now, Americans worried about the recession are buying only what they need today. This new frugality has merchants and suppliers overhauling every aspect of their businesses, from window displays to the fabrics they choose.

It’s changing some of the rules of retail.

Photo courtesy of phiblet

Trout, Drought and Climate Change

News Hour video on the impact of climate change on the trout population in Montana.

Produced by Heidi Cullen (The Weather Channel) and Climate Central. 

Worth watching, especially if you are a fly fishing aficionado.

El Nino, Weather, and the Spread of Swine Flu

Veterinarians more at risk for suicide in spring

According to a study conducted by Oxford University, spring can be a real downer for veterinarians.  Here's the full story as published in DVM360:

Veterinarians more at risk for suicide in spring

People in occupational groups with easy access to means for suicide—like veterinarians, doctors, pharmacists, and police officers—are more at risk than others for taking their own lives, according to a new study. And that risk goes up as the weather begins to warm up.

While researchers from Oxford University and University Hospital in Gent, Belgium, haven’t found a reason behind the spike in springtime suicides, one theory suggests that the change of season following a period of prolonged darkness triggers an unknown neurochemical imbalance in the brain. Another theory states that seeing other people who appear to be happy may be hard for suicidal people to take.

Weather and its influence on suicide is not something I've looked into in the past, but, it turns out, there has been quite a bit of research on this relationship.

For a much deeper look, take a look at the following analysis published in the American Journal of Epidemiology:   Seasonal Associations between Weather Conditions and Suicide

Following are a few interesting (and grim) tidbits from this analysis:

• A preliminary positive association between temperature and suicide frequencies was found in men and in women

• The positive association between temperature and suicide emerges mainly during the winter months, supplemented by an intermediate peak in summer. Essentially, the association between temperature and suicide is not due to warm temperatures but is due to mainly the lack of low temperatures

• Two suicide methods, that is, jumping from high places and being run over by a train, have the highest associations with temperature. It seems that outdoor suicide depend on agreeable temperatures and, in some suicide methods, this issue is particularly relevant in winter.

Creepy stuff, but another example of the profound influence of weather and climate on human behavior.