G2 Weather Intelligence

2009 Hurricane Season Outlook: Conference Call Tomorrow at 10 AM EDT

A Global Hunter Security and G2 Weather Intelligence production with special guest speaker Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist.

Topic:  Updated 2009 Hurricane outlook with a special focus on the Gulf and the latest in risk management strategies.  30-minute telephone conference call.

If you would like to attend, contact me (paul.walsh@g2weather) and I will forward along dial-in information.

Florida in the Cross Hairs: 30% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation

It never fails, following a flurry of downward revisions in the 2009 Hurricane season,  up pops a very early threat of a tropical cyclone bearing down on Florida.

That said, the odds of formation are very low and, even if it did get up to tropical storm strength (TS Ana), there is very little correlation between an early season event and an active overall year. 

Never-the-less, an interesting wake up call and a heart-thumper for weather geeks and owners of beach front property in Florida. 

More on the latest hurricane forecasts ("Are we putting the CAT back in the bag?") in a post later this week.

Following is the latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center:

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that an area of
disturbed weather has formed over eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the adjacent waters. Slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two as it moves generally northward at 10 to 15 mph.

An Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the system on Tuesday, if necessary. There is a low chance, less than 30 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

AccuWeather's Initial 2009 Hurricane Outlook

Following is a short video summarizing  AccuWeather's 2009 hurricane outlook. 

2009 Hurricane Forecast Update: 70% Chance of a Storm Hitting the Louisiana or Alabama Coast

Posted above is the latest prediction from the Weather Research Center.  The highlighted areas represent  (I believe) the probability of a land falling hurricane over the course of the entire hurricane season.

According the to the WRC, the central Gulf Coast will have the highest risk compared to normal.  During a typical year, this area has a 59% probability of a hurricane strike.  The WRC is pegging this year's probability of a hurricane strike (in Louisiana and Alabama) at 70%. 

Following is how they describe the methodology used in developing the forecast:

The Houston-based Weather Research Center is one of a handful of organizations that make seasonal hurricane predictions. WRC uses a model called Orbital Cyclone Strike Index (OCSI) which uses the solar cycle [an indication of the solar system’s orbit] to predict the risk for coastal residents each hurricane season. The OCSI model is based on the premise that there are orbital influences that are reflected in the global circulation pattern on the sun as well as the global circulation pattern of the earth. These orbital influences are reflected in the 11.1 year sun spot cycle.

To read their entire assessment, click here:   Weather Research Center 2009 Hurricane Outlook

For my analysis of all the publicly released hurricanes, click here:  2009 Hurricane Season Update Three

I'll be updating the consensus forecast later this week following the public release (3/18) of AccuWeather's  initial outlook.

 

2009 Hurricane Season Update Three

I've added yet another 2009 Hurricane forecast to the mix -- this one from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).  TSR's forecast is on the high end of the four predictions that are currently publicly available, but still trends higher than the long term average and lower than the 10-year average.  The graph (above) compares the consensus prediction to the long and short term averages.

Following are all the forecasts I've collected to date.  Please forward along any other forecasts  that you may find (or, feel free to give me your personal forecast) and I'll include them in the consensus.  At the end of the season we'll grade the outlooks to see which came closest.  I'm "betting" on the 10-year average. 

For reference: pasted below is my commentary from the January 2, 2009 update.

January 2, 2009 Update Below:

Yet another forecast of the 2009 season was released to the public this week, this one from  Weather Research Center, Inc.

As was true last year their prediction for the number of named storms and hurricanes is well below the consensus and the 10-year moving average.  

For the record, my preference for this year (and every year) is to use the 10-year moving average as a predictor for the upcoming hurricane season.  In most cases this will give you a good -- if not better -- estimation of the number of storms than what comes out of the various government, commercial, and academic organizations.  

For an interesting analysis of the "skill" of long range hurricane forecasts, check out the following article from Carl Bialik, the "Numbers Guy" from the Wall Street Journal:  In Hurricane Forecasting, Science Is Far From Exact

Copied below is a summary of the forecasts released to date for the 2009 season.  I expect there will be 3 to 4 more to come out over the next few months and will update the graph as they become available.

So far -- in terms of number of storms -- the consensus is pointing to a less active year than the 10-year average and last year.   Just based on looking at the statistics, and considering the potential of another La Nina forming (a "bullish" sign for hurricane formation), it appears that the forecasters may be under forecasting the threat this year.

Time will tell.  

 

In the meantime I'll continue to collect and aggregate the plethora of predictions that will be coming out over the next few months.

2009 Hurricane Season Update: Yet Another Forecast Released this Week

“The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers.”  

 -  Edgar R. Fiedler

IMPORTANT NOTE:  February 24 Update available HERE

Yet another forecast of the 2009 season was released to the public this week, this one from  Weather Research Center, Inc.

As was true last year their prediction for the number of named storms and hurricanes is well below the consensus and the 10-year moving average.  

For the record, my preference for this year (and every year) is to use the 10-year moving average as a predictor for the upcoming hurricane season.  In most cases this will give you a good -- if not better -- estimation of the number of storms than what comes out of the various government, commercial, and academic organizations.  

For an interesting analysis of the "skill" of long range hurricane forecasts, check out the following article from Carl Bialik, the "Numbers Guy" from the Wall Street Journal:  In Hurricane Forecasting, Science Is Far From Exact

Copied below is a summary of the forecasts released to date for the 2009 season.  I expect there will be 3 to 4 more to come out over the next few months and will update the graph as they become available.

So far -- in terms of number of storms -- the consensus is pointing to a less active year than the 10-year average and last year.   Just based on looking at the statistics, and considering the potential of another La Nina forming (a "bullish" sign for hurricane formation), it appears that the forecasters may be under forecasting the threat this year.

Time will tell.  

 

In the meantime I'll continue to collect and aggregate the plethora of predictions that will be coming out over the next few months.