A Near-Perfect May Setup for Home Depot and Lowe’s—But the War Changes Everything
The weather is doing its part for Home Depot and Lowe's. Gas prices, tariff inflation, and a shooting war in Iran are doing their best to undo it.
“The consumer who walks into Home Depot or Lowe’s in May 2026 has a lawn that needs attention and less disposable income than a year ago. That tension — weather-driven need versus macro-constrained budget — is the defining dynamic of spring 2026.”
I’m writing this from the G2 Intelligence southern HQ at the Delaware shore. It’s April 16th. The forecast high today is 90 degrees. And I’m getting a new HVAC system installed — replacing a unit that picked the wrong spring to give up. Murphy never fails to bite me in the ass.
But this is not just a weather anecdote. It’s a demand signal. A hot and sweaty one.
April 16th. Ninety degrees. A contractor in my driveway, a technician in the crawl space, and a purchase order somewhere in the supply chain. This is what pull-forward demand looks like in practice. The record warmth that began in March hasn’t let up. Spring demand didn’t arrive in May this year. It arrived in March, six weeks early, and it hasn’t left.
NOAA released the official May 20…
