Before the Tape: The Weather Case for an April Retail Beat.

The Ohio Valley just had its warmest April in 132 years. History says that matters.

Tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EDT, the Commerce Department releases April advance retail sales. The consensus, as reflected in the Kalshi prediction market, is +0.5% month-over-month — above the historical median (and, notably, trending toward the weather signal). The macro narrative is already written: high inflation, $4.50 gasoline, negative real wages, and all-time low consumer sentiment.

Nobody is talking about the weather.

They should be.