Black Friday Dollars Are Up. Foot Traffic and Units Aren’t — Weather Drives December Momentum
The 2025 shopper is buying less, spending smarter, and shifting demand to whoever aligns with value — and the weather.
Quick Summary
1. Early-winter cold hit nearly half of U.S. households this week, activating demand that promotions couldn’t.
The Northeast, Central, and East North Central regions ran 5–15°F below normal—enough to unlock need-based purchases in a highly selective consumer environment.
2. Value retailers and home centers gained the most from the weather-driven shift.
Winners include The Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), Ross Stores (ROST), Burlington (BURL), TJX (TJX), Dollar General (DG), Walmart (WMT), and Costco (COST) as shoppers moved toward essentials and affordable warmth.
3. Next week’s colder-than-normal setup and cleaner YoY comps extend the momentum.
With cold persisting across population-dense regions, winter categories hold a clear demand tailwind heading into the final stretch before Christmas.
