But for Trump, This Would Have Been a Boffo Spring
Retail sales will suffer. But historically warm spring weather — the kind Trump calls a hoax — may be the backstop nobody expected.
I don't oppose all wars. What I am opposed to is a dumb war.—Barack Obama
Signal Summary
Macro headwinds are real: geopolitical tension and higher energy costs are acting as a short-term tax on discretionary spending
Weather is quietly supportive: early, favorable spring conditions are pulling forward seasonal demand across the western half of the country
Category split emerging: discretionary remains pressured, but weather-driven categories are stabilizing — and in some markets, accelerating
Key takeaway: Q1 retail likely comes in soft — but less bad than expected, where weather exposure is high
