Cold Powers Seasonal Demand, But Energy Costs Drain Discretionary Spend
G2 Weather Intelligence Signal™ Flash Report — December 8, 2025
Covering conditions for the weeks ending Dec 6, Dec 13, and Dec 20
Quick Summary
• Cold weather is boosting winter demand in the East, but higher heating bills are pulling spend toward essentials and away from discretionary gifting.
• Warmth in the West is capping winter sell-through and shifting dollars into DIY, outdoor, and travel categories.
• The season looks strong for winter goods in the East—yet the K-shaped consumer will decide how much of that demand actually shows up in the numbers.
Overview
December’s cold snap keeps delivering—especially across the high-population East—lifting seasonal demand for winter apparel, home comfort, and heating categories.
But that same cold is squeezing the lower half of the K-shaped economy with higher energy bills and stubborn inflation. The result: more dollars flowing to essentials, but fewer units, softer traffic, and tighter discretionary gifting.
Weather is driving demand; the consumer’s wallet is deciding where it lands.
Last Week: The Weather That Shaped the Consumer
Nearly half of U.S. households felt a meaningful early-winter cold last week, with the Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Upper Midwest regions running sharply below normal.
The cold wasn’t just a temperature story—it was a behavior story.
These regions stepped decisively into winter routines: increased heating use, more indoor time, and greater demand for cold-weather essentials.
For retailers, that meant:
Winter apparel gained traction (value, off-price, mass)
Home-comfort and heating categories strengthened (space heaters, insulation, weatherproofing)
Winter auto and snow/ice products saw renewed pull
Pantry stock-ups ticked higher, especially where precipitation probabilities favored wintry conditions
The seasonal handoff into winter was clean, timely, and broadly supportive of December demand for consumers who actually experienced winter last week.
The tables below are showing the G2 Retail Weather Index™ — the population-weighted measure we use to track how weather is shaping retail performance across the country.
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This Week (Week Ending 12/13)
A Split Market for Winter Demand
The upcoming week reinforces the early-December divide: cold stays locked across the Midwest and Central U.S., while warmth surges across the West and Southwest. The Northeast moderates from last week’s deep chill but still runs cool enough to keep winter categories moving.
For the northern tier (East North Central, Central, West North Central), temperatures remain 6–10°F below normal and colder than last year, which is exactly what winter-facing sectors want to see in mid-December. That’s a tailwind for:
Home centers – heaters, insulation, weatherization, winter auto, and snow/ice products.
Mass and value retail – winter basics, cold-weather apparel, and stock-up baskets.
Off-price and value apparel – outerwear, boots, and accessories finally getting a clean seasonal read.
On the other side of the map, the West, Southwest, and Northwest flip decisively warm—7–10°F above normal and much warmer than last year, with the Northwest also facing elevated precipitation odds. That pattern:
Constrains winter seasonal performance for specialty apparel and department stores in warm markets.
Shifts demand toward rain gear, at-home categories, and e-commerce/omni as storms pass through the Northwest.
Benefits DIY, outdoor, and travel-oriented sectors, while leaving winter goods exposed to slower sell-through.
Net: winter demand stays healthy where it’s actually cold, but the warm West/Southwest continues to cap upside and build inventory risk for winter-heavy assortments.
Next Week (Week Ending 12/20)
A Cold Finish to December for the East
Next week resets the pattern again: warmth holds across the West and Southwest, but the Ohio Valley and Eastern U.S. turn colder both vs. normal and vs. last year—a favorable setup for late-December, need-based demand.
For the Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Upper Midwest regions, temperatures run meaningfully colder year over year, which is exactly what winter categories need in the final stretch before Christmas. That backdrop supports:
Home centers — continued pull for heating, weatherproofing, winter auto, and snow/ice products.
Mass and value retail — stronger movement in winter basics and replenishment baskets.
Off-price and value apparel — outerwear, boots, and accessories benefiting from a clean seasonal comp.
Further south, the Southeast also turns sharply colder year over year, which can unlock last-minute seasonal purchases that lagged earlier in December.
Meanwhile, the West and Southwest stay unseasonably warm—limiting winter goods and softening seasonal apparel reads. These regions skew toward DIY, outdoor, and travel, while specialty apparel and winter-heavy assortments face a tougher margin backdrop.
Bottom line: The Eastern half of the country gets a cold finish that supports winter demand in the final sprint to Christmas, while the warm West continues to cap upside for seasonal categories.
Extended Outlook: Where High-Confidence Weather Signals Matter Most
For the extended outlook, we use NOAA’s probability-based forecasts, which don’t predict exact temperatures — they show the likelihood that a region will run warmer, colder, or near normal. These probability clusters are powerful for retail: they help pinpoint where demand is likely to accelerate, stall, or shift in the weeks ahead.
What the Data Shows …
Across the extended horizon, two themes stand out:
Cold probability remains elevated across the Midwest, Central, and East regions.
This reinforces multi-week demand for core winter categories—outerwear, thermal layers, boots, heaters—and keeps traffic flowing for value-oriented retailers serving constrained households.Warm probability dominates the West and Southwest.
This suppresses winter-category velocity, increases clearance risk, and shortens the effective selling window for cold-weather goods.
Why It Matters for Retail
This time of year, small shifts in temperature probabilities can swing category performance, margin timing, and inventory exposure.
Retailers think in weeks; consumers react in hours. The extended outlook helps close that gap.
Winter Is Working for Retailers — the Consumer May Not Be
Winter is doing exactly what retailers want in the East—driving strong, need-based demand for cold-weather apparel, home comfort, and heating—but that strength is coming at the expense of non-seasonal gifting, especially for lower- and middle-income households absorbing higher energy bills and sticky inflation.
Out West, the pattern flips: warmth caps winter sell-through and pushes spending toward DIY, outdoor, and travel instead.
The weather is setting up a solid seasonal finish for winter categories in the East—but the K-shaped consumer, and the cost of keeping the heat on, will decide how much of that demand actually shows up on the top line.
Appendix: What the Market Is Saying
Cold weather showed up. Unit demand didn’t. And rising heating costs are tightening wallets. Here are three outside reads that echo this week’s signal.
Cold Weather Lifted Winter Apparel in Key Regions
Mastercard SpendingPulse reported that colder-than-normal weather in New England and the Midwest boosted cold-weather apparel sales—a clear example of regional weather shaping category performance.
CBS / GlobalData noted that while holiday spending hit record levels, unit volume grew only ~0.3%, meaning higher prices—not more traffic—drove the gains.
Heating Bills Are Squeezing Discretionary Spend
A UNH / Rhode Island Consumer Energy Survey found that 78% of households are worried about heating costs this winter, a pressure that pulls dollars away from discretionary gifting.
Reference Map
Weather data for this G2 Weather Intelligence Signal™ report is sourced in partnership with WeatherMapping.com. Their high-precision datasets enable rapid, decision-ready insights.
Bonus Video
Hat tip to G2 Weather subscriber J. Madigan for this instructive video. The impact of weather on consumers? Like politics, it’s all local …
Click the image to see the full (and brilliant) Florida winter weather signal explainer.
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Weather probability data sourced from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.