Cooler temperatures shifts consumer psychology into fall mode
This dip in temperatures provides a short-term comp advantage that could boost consumer spending in key categories...just in time for back-to-school!
As July turns to August, a shift in the weather pattern could provide retailers with something the economy hasn’t delivered much of lately: a demand tailwind.
Forecasts call for cooler and drier-than-normal conditions across the East next week, setting up a window where consumer psychology tilts early toward fall.
For me, that shift is personal as well as analytical — it happens to coincide with my grandson’s first day of Kindergarten. And as any parent or grandparent knows, the “back-to-school switch” is as emotional as it is practical.
A Short-Term Boost, Backed by Year-Over-Year Contrast
This week’s forecast matters for another reason: it’s much cooler than the same week last year. In 2024, summer warmth lingered into late July and August, suppressing seasonal transitions. This year’s relative cool spell provides a double advantage:
It acts as a behavioral trigger for parents and students to accelerate back-to-school purchases.
It provides a comp advantage, as cooler conditions are layered against last year’s hotter baseline.
The result: a weather-driven bump for categories like apparel, school supplies, home goods, and even grocery items tied to routine-building.
But the Window May Close Quickly
The opportunity is likely to be short-lived. The 3–4 week NOAA outlook points toward a return to warmer-than-normal conditions in the East by early September.
That creates a sharp reversal when compared to 2024, when late August and September trended cooler. In other words, the same weather that supports comps in early August could turn into a demand headwind by mid-September.
Looking Further Ahead: A Colder Fall Rebound
This near-term pattern is part of a broader seasonal story we flagged last month.
Using NOAA data aligned with NRF fiscal weeks, our G2 Weather Intelligence model projects that Fall and Holiday 2025 is set to be significantly colder than 2024.
That matters because:
October Weeks 1–4: Big cooldown in the West, Southwest, and Northeast → strong potential for Halloween-related lift.
November Weeks 1–2: Broad national cold → favorable set-up for Thanksgiving grocery and gifting.
December Weeks 4–5: Coldest weeks of the year → boost to outerwear, heating, post-holiday redemptions.
Put simply: abnormal warmth last year suppressed demand, and this year’s cooler temperatures could unlock it.
Read more here: Retail Silver Lining? Colder Temperatures to Drive Stronger Fall/Holiday '25 Demand
Tariffs, Inflation, and the Weather Counterweight
With the retail industry bracing for tariff-driven cost pressures and uncertain consumer spending power, weather may play a stabilizing role. If macro conditions create margin pressure, weather-driven necessity demand — heaters, outerwear, seasonal apparel, home décor — could provide a critical offset.
The Takeaway
Near-term: Cooler, drier weather next week is a back-to-school accelerator — but the boost will be brief.
Medium-term: Warmer September could mute momentum.
Seasonal: October through December still hold the strongest potential, as colder YoY patterns align with peak retail weeks.
For retailers, the playbook is clear: lean into early signals, stay flexible as the outlook shifts, and prepare for a stronger weather-driven fall season.
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My assessment of the impact of the weather on retail sales last fall:
The Weather's Impact on Q3 / 2024 Retail Sales
