Dome of Doom? Health Risks Surge as Another Hot Summer Looms
National Weather Service predicting a high probability of another dangerously hot summer
The National Weather Service’s current summer outlook is projecting another hotter-than-normal season.
As temperatures climb, so do the risks to our health, especially for vulnerable populations. We’re not just talking about uncomfortable afternoons; we're talking about a significant public health challenge that’s rapidly intensifying.
The convergence of a warming climate and increased exposure in densely populated urban areas creates a dangerous cocktail.
Imagine a "dome of doom" settling over our cities – a prolonged period of oppressive heat that pushes our bodies to their limits.
Heat-related illnesses, from heat exhaustion to deadly heatstroke, are on the rise, and the strain on our healthcare systems is becoming increasingly palpable.
I discussed this a few summers ago on the FOX Weather and FOX Business channel, where I occasionally make Sunday morning appearances. The so-called lower third on the screen is pretty grim, but it’s a valid statement.
At the start of last summer, I also did a segment on risks expected for the upcoming summer and called out three specific health and property risks:
Dangerous health risks associated with the expected hot summer
An expected hyper-active (“dire”) hurricane season predicted by the National Hurricane Center
Enhanced wildfire risk creating both property and health risks.
This segment was picked up by the NY Post under this headline: This summer’s weather risk could be ‘scary’ for businesses, ‘As risky as I’ve ever seen’
In retrospect, the forecasts—all generated by the professionals at our currently beleaguered National Weather Service—were, unfortunately, prescient.
Here are some relevant post-facto headlines and studies:
It’s been the hottest summer on record to date for around 100 US cities from Maine to California. Heat is suspected in the deaths of least 37 people in the US in July, a number that is likely underestimated given the amount of time it takes to attribute a death to nature’s most prolific weather killer.
Retail Leaders Discuss 2024 Hurricane Season Impacts and Needs
Hurricanes Helene and Milton caused cascading challenges that affected millions of Americans and thousands of businesses. For retailers on the frontlines providing essential supplies to the public, the storms caused supply chain disruptions, damage to business storefronts and warehouses, temporary closures, and impacts on employees and the economic health of the region.
Additionally, many pharmacies in the region were forced to temporarily close, due to forces outside of their control - limiting residents’ access to necessary medication and resulting in increased hospital visits.
IMPACT OF 2025 LOS ANGELES WILDFIRES AND COMPARATIVE STUDY
The 2025 Los Angeles wildfires have resulted in significant economic, property, and employment losses, with total property damages estimated between $28.0 billion and $53.8 billion. The Palisades and Eaton Fires account for most of these losses, impacting thousands of properties and businesses.
Business disruptions within the fire perimeters are projected to cause $4.6 billion to $8.9 billion in lost economic output in Los Angeles County over five years (2025-2029), representing approximately 0.3 to 0.6 percent of the county’s total economic output. The fires could lead to employment losses totaling between 24,990 and 49,110 job-years and labor income reductions ranging from $1.9 billion to $3.7 billion.
Additionally, due to reduced business activity and employment, federal, state, and local governments could see tax revenue losses between $0.73 billion and $1.4 billion.
Note that while I was discussing the implications of the upcoming summer weather, I didn’t make the weather forecasts. I didn’t need to. The professionals at the National Weather Service developed the forecasts and made them available to me at virtually no cost.
I translated the raw data into my expectations of the high-level impacts on human health and then communicated that message to viewers of both the FOX Weather and FOX Business Channels.
The point here is to illustrate that we have tremendous weather and climate data available to us now from NOAA and the NWS (at least for now), at little or no cost, that enables us to know months in advance the weather risk trends facing us.
Looking at the latest summer forecast, it’s clear that we’re in for another hotter-than-normal summer across the entire US, with “hot spots” in the northeast (including the New York City metro area) and much of the western US.
Take the over …
While these are probability outlooks, and we don’t yet know how much hotter it will be than normal, it will most likely be another hot summer across the entire country.
If there’s any good news here, we’re coming off of a very hot summer (the second warmest in 130 years) last year. The odds of having an even hotter summer are generally low as the weather tends to regress to the mean. While it will likely be hotter than usual, it probably won’t be as hot nationally as last summer.
But even less hot does not mean it will be meaningfully less unhealthy. Particularly for vulnerable populations in large urban areas in cities where people are not as accustomed to extended heat waves.
Below is a summary and link to a study on the health impacts of the 2021 “dome of doom” over the Pacific Northwest —
What the Study Looked At:
The study examined how a "heat dome" event (a period of extreme, prolonged heat) in 2021 affected hospitals and emergency departments (EDs).
Researchers wanted to see if the heat wave led to more people needing urgent medical care.
Key Findings:
Increased ED Visits and Hospitalizations:
During the heat dome, hospitals saw about 22 extra ED visits per day compared to normal periods.
There were also about 10 extra unplanned hospitalizations per day.
ED Crowding and Delays:
The heat wave caused significant crowding in the ED, and it got worse as the heat event continued.
People spent about an hour longer in the ED during the heat wave.
Who Was Most Affected:
Older people, women, and people with diabetes were more likely to experience heat-related illnesses.
Specific Numbers:
For every year older a person was, their risk of heat illness increased by about 2%.
Women were about 47% more likely to have a heat-related illness.
People with diabetes were more than 3 times as likely to have a heat-related illness.
What It Means:
The 2021 heat dome significantly increased the number of people needing emergency medical care.
This surge in patients put a strain on hospitals, causing overcrowding and delays.
Certain groups of people are more vulnerable to heat-related illnesses.
This study shows that extreme heat events put a substantial strain on the healthcare system.
In summary, we have the tools, data, and analytics (today!) to know the location and duration of hazardous heat events months to weeks in advance. In a future dispatch, we’ll discuss the incredible opportunities that agentic AI brings.
What’s needed to fully leverage the data and technology we already have to reduce the health impacts of these events?
A comprehensive and thoughtful weather strategy.