February Retail Sales Beat. The Weather Was Already Telling You This.
Discount retail wins the weather-macro squeeze. Home centers face a split signal.
"The weather opens the door. The macro environment decides how far consumers walk through it."
The February retail sales number dropped this morning — up 0.6%, ahead of the 0.5% consensus. Reuters cited warming temperatures as a contributing factor. They’re right. But the weather signal was visible weeks before the data.
WASHINGTON, April 1 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales increased solidly in February as motor vehicle purchases rebounded and temperatures warmed up, but surging gasoline prices because of war in the Middle East could crimp spending in the months ahead.
NOAA’s February statewide temperature rankings tell the story.
Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, Texas, Oklahoma, and Colorado all ranked 132nd warmest out of 132 years on record. Not just warm. Historically warm. The entire western half of the country ran much above average. Precipitation was suppressed across the same geography — dry conditions that keep consumers moving rather than stuck at home.
That combinat…
