Forecasters Predict a (Relatively) Quiet Hurricane Season. Don't believe it.
I was on CNBC the morning Sandy hit. Here's what I learned.
There I was …
October 29, 2012. Superstorm Sandy is making landfall on the Jersey Shore. On a beeline (it seemed), for the CNBC headquarters in Englewood Cliffs. I was live on Squawk Box with Mike Santoli, reporting on the storm’s impact on retailers and the broader consumer economy as it was happening.
The Weather Channel and CNBC were sister companies at the time. When a storm of Sandy's magnitude was tracking toward New York City, you forward-deployed to the studio, and you stayed there. In New Jersey, they call it going to the mattresses. The photo at the bottom of this post is proof.
What I was watching in the data in the days before landfall was the lesson I’ve carried ever since. The retail demand surge — generators, water, batteries, plywood, prepared food — was already over before the wind picked up in Englewood Cliffs. Consumers had seen the cone. They had watched the coverage. They had acted.
The storm didn’t drive the demand. The forecast did
Colorado State University released its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook this month. The headline: below normal. Thirteen named storms against a long-term average of fourteen. Six hurricanes against an average of seven. Two major hurricanes against an average of three. Overall activity forecast at roughly 75% of the long-term average, driven primarily by an expected El Niño developing through the summer.
CSU included one sentence at the bottom of their forecast that belongs at the top:
“Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them.”
That sentence is the only part of the seasonal forecast that matters for business planning. A below-normal season with one well-placed storm hitting a major metro produces billions in economic disruption. An above-normal season where every storm curves offshore produces nothing.
The number of storms doesn’t move markets. The cone does.
Last December, I wrote about what AI is doing to hurricane forecasting — and why earlier, sharper cones change everything for business. With the season opening June 1st, it’s worth a read.
Musical Coda
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