G2 Weather Signal™ — Boxing Day Update
Rain and warmth are reshaping the final holiday selling week
“You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows” —Bob Dylan
This Boxing Day update refreshes the weather signal using the latest observed data for this week and updated forecasts for next week, compared against Monday’s original Flash.
The objective is simple: isolate what materially changed, where risk intensified, and which retailers are now more exposed as the holiday window closes and post-Christmas clearance begins.
Signal Takeaway
This week’s weather moved colder in the Northeast than Monday expected, reinforcing traffic and gifting tailwinds late in the season
Rain risk in the West materialized and conditions remain disruptive enough to weigh on store traffic
Next week flipped meaningfully colder across most regions, removing any warm-weather relief for January inventory
Off-price and value retailers with West + South exposure remain the most weather-sensitive into year-end, led by Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST)
Key shift:
Monday’s outlook assumed a broadly milder early-January setup. The updated signal now shows material cooling across much of the country, with the sharpest declines in the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, South, and Northeast.
Retail Implications
Off-Price & Value Retail
Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST) remains the most exposed name given its heavy West + South footprint
Cooler January temps help category relevance, but rain-impacted West Coast traffic still caps upside
Similar exposure dynamics apply to Burlington Stores (NYSE: BURL) and TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX), though with more diversified regional balance
Department Stores
The colder turn is supportive for demand, but timing is late
Benefits skew toward sell-through protection, not incremental margin recovery
Macy’s (NYSE: M) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) see modest demand support, but inventory risk remains elevated
Mass & Value
Weather volatility continues to pressure discretionary add-ons
Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) benefit from traffic resilience. Still, the colder shift may actually complicate their inventory transition if they've already committed floor space to 'Spring Forward' promotional sets.
Bottom Line
This is no longer a story about national weather tailwinds. It’s a regional execution test — where rain, colder turns, and late-season timing determine whether inventory clears cleanly or leaks into January margin pressure.
G2 Weather Intelligence™ — where weather becomes signal, not noise.
Appendix
Pro tip: Cold vs. normal helps. Cold vs. last year doesn’t. In the Northeast this week, temperatures are below seasonal norms but far warmer than last year’s extreme cold — limiting actual demand acceleration despite “cold” headlines.
Musical Coda
Media & Attribution: Insights may be used with clear attribution to G2 Weather Intelligence. Weather data courtesy of my friends at WeatherMapping.com
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