G2 Weather Signal™ Flash Report — Feb 2, 2026

Ground Hog Day All Over Again

Feb 02, 2026

∙ Paid

“I’ll give you a winter prediction, it’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be grey, and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your life” —Phil Connors (aka Bill Murray)

Signal Summary

Last Week (Jan 31): A regional winter lock drove defensive behavior. Emergency, repair, and delivery categories outperformed, while traffic-dependent dining and discretionary trips were permanently lost.
This Week (Feb 7): The shock fades, but friction persists. Sub-freezing temperatures keep maintenance demand elevated, while mobility constraints continue to cap discretionary recovery.
Next Week (Feb 14): Valentine’s demand faces significant weather distortion, with asymmetric risk for dining and discretionary categories. Details below.
Weeks 3–4 Outlook: The setup points to continued regional earnings dispersion, with persistence—not reversal—driving outcomes. Probability-weighted scenarios behind the paywall.

The Setup—Groundhog Day Edition

I’m starting off this Flash report with a war story. The kind that almost always start with: ”This is no ~~shit~~…”, or “There I was…”, or “No, really…”

I met Bill Murray once.

No, really …

It was in a bar in New York City in the early 20 teens. It was late, very late—and he was the Bill Murray you would expect. He was playing the piano and singing; there was a lot of laughter. He wasn’t being mobbed by fans (just another night in NYC, after all); he was, as you would expect, the life of the party.

At the time, I was with The Weather Company and appeared relatively frequently on The Weather Channel (TWC). I was the so-called business and weather expert, and we even had an ad-supported TV segment called “The Forecast Factor with Paul Walsh.”

Given my faux-fame (and the fact it was o-dark thirty, and I was properly lubricated), I felt it was my duty to introduce myself to Bill and have a chat, since we were both celebs.

So I did.

I introduced myself—loudly and closely, given the bar volume—as a Weather Channel guy, a big fan, and a lover of his work (Groundhog Day, duh!).

As I recall, he was very interested to hear that I was affiliated with The Weather Channel. It turns out he was (and is still, I presume) a TWC fan, and he had … opinions.

First, he was not a fan of the relatively new long-form TV shows being aired on TWC. Shows the likes of Fat Guys in the Woods and Freaks of Nature. “You should stick to weather,” he noted. A refrain that was common in those days.

He also wasn’t keen on our new winter storm naming initiative—along with the rest of the relatively hide-bound commercial weather enterprise—but I don’t recall his exact objection. It was loud, and I was three sheets to the wind at that point. He was, too.

Granted, this is a bit far afield from my standard weekly flash report, but given the date, my brush with greatness, the weather signal over the past few weeks, and the next few weeks (cold weather … all over again), it seems appropriate for a Groundhog Day. Duh!

Last Week — Winter Lock-In

Week Ending January 31, 2026

Last week delivered a clean winter shock, with much of the eastern U.S. recording double-digit cold relative to normal and the prior year. Snow and ice were concentrated in high-density areas, causing widespread mobility disruptions.

Consumer behavior turned defensive. Grocery trips consolidated, while failure-based demand lifted auto and home-adjacent categories. AutoZone captured emergency battery and heater spend, Tractor Supply benefited from rural prep, and Wingstop gained from delivery as travel collapsed.

The downside was concentrated in traffic-dependent categories. Ice erased peak dining occasions, hitting full-service restaurants hardest, while Starbucks and Chipotle lost routine and lunch-daypart revenue tied to commute disruption.

Bottom line: this was a regional winter lock, not a national reset — rewarding emergency and delivery categories while permanently removing discretionary trips.

This Week — Recovery With Friction

Week Ending February 7, 2026

This week shifts from shock to persistence. While the initial Arctic surge has eased, much of the East remains well below normal, with the Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Northeast still 8–12°F colder than average. Lingering snow and ice continue to constrain mobility.

That favors maintenance demand, not panic buying. Emergency repair categories stay active as sub-freezing temperatures sustain failure-based spend. AutoZone benefits from cold persistence, Tractor Supply shifts into ongoing heating and livestock maintenance, and delivery-first platforms like Wingstop remain advantaged where road clearing is slow.

The drag remains in occasion-driven categories. Ice and unsafe travel suppress casual dining ahead of Valentine’s, while disrupted commutes and transport delays slow recovery for Starbucks and Chipotle.

Bottom line: this is a recovery week with friction, rewarding essential and delivery-led models while traffic-dependent categories continue to lag.