G2 Weather Signal™ Flash Report — Jan 5, 2026
Winter’s Hold Slips — Consumers Re-Enter
“There are two seasonal diversions that can ease the bite of any winter. One is the January thaw. The other is the seed catalogues.” — Hal Borland
Signal Summary
January thaw hits hard: broad warmth this week, led by Northern Rockies & Plains ~+29°F YoY → resets traffic + promo cadence + winter-inventory risk.
Restaurants win (routine returns): Starbucks (SBUX), McDonald’s (MCD), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Shake Shack (SHAK).
Winter apparel risk rises: fewer full-price days → Kohl’s (KSS), The TJX Companies (TJX), Boot Barn (BOOT), Dillard’s (DDS) face clearance pressure.
Watch the whipsaw: thaw now, cold/snow odds reload later (Ohio Valley + Northeast/Great Lakes) → positioning matters.
The Setup
This is the week regional divergence fades — and the weather turns more uniform, making the national sales signal cleaner and easier for markets to price.
Last week, the Northeast and Midwest looked and felt like January. Bigly. This week, the country hits a reset button. It’s the classic January Thaw — not a gentle moderation, but a meaningful shift that changes what people do day to day.
For investors and CFOs, here’s why it matters:
Thaws restore mobility (commutes, quick trips, walk-ins) — a tailwind for routine-driven consumer spend.
Thaws steal urgency from cold-weighted categories — a headwind for winter apparel sell-through.
And when a thaw lands on top of extreme YoY comps (like the Northern Plains this week), that’s an easy-weather comp. If you don’t adjust for weather, you’ll over-credit the business for a bounce that’s largely weather-driven.
Last Week’s Summary (Week Ending Jan 3rd)
The Weather
Last week still showed a meaningful split: the Northeast was the last true winter market, while much of the central/southern footprint leaned warmer and drier.
From a market lens, that meant: winter was still real — but not broad. Cold-weighted demand signals existed, but they were localized, and the national picture stayed muddy.
Retail implication: localized winter helps the names with dense cold-market exposure and clean winter positioning — but it doesn’t bail out winter assortments nationally.
Bullish
BJ’s Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) Snow and sub-zero wind chills in the Northeast drove high-velocity essentials-focused trips and defensive pantry loading.
AutoZone (NYSE: AZO) The sudden Arctic surge triggered a peak “mechanical necessity” cycle, driving inelastic demand for batteries and cold-start parts.
Walmart (NYSE: WMT) Dominant Midwest/Northeast presence captured “survival spend” on staples and winter hardlines as consumers bypassed discretionary malls.
Bearish
Shake Shack (NYSE: SHAK) Extreme “Climate Friction” in NYC/DC urban centers decimated walk-in traffic and outdoor dining during the holiday week.
Gap Inc. (NYSE: GAP) Caught in a mismatch: Northeast cold favored functional utility over fashion, while Southern warmth stalled seasonal clearance.
Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS) Record warmth in core Sunbelt markets created a massive clearance headwind for winter inventory, forcing margin-eroding markdowns.
Data Source: weathermapping.com Beginning next week, continued access to the next week, and extended outlooks will be available only for subscribers to G2 Weather Signal™ — Premium.
This Week’s Summary (Week Ending Jan 10th)
The Weather
This week is the break. Warmth expands and intensifies across large population footprints — including places that should be winter-reliable this time of year.
The biggest tell is the Northern Rockies & Plains YoY shock. A swing that large usually means last year featured deep, persistent cold in that region during the comparable week — and this year is the opposite: a springlike regime. That changes everything from driving conditions to trip frequency to what’s even visible in the store.
Retail implication: This is where winter inventory becomes a balance-sheet variable. Every thaw day is a day when winter products don’t have a reason to move at full price.
Bullish
Shake Shack (NYSE: SHAK) Primary “Thaw” beneficiary; moderating temps in NYC/DC corridor removes walk-in friction and triggers a release of pent-up urban dining demand.
Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) Routine restoration; clearing roads and above-freezing temps across the Northeast/Ohio Valley stabilize high-frequency morning mobile-order counts.
Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) Suburban traffic rebound; moderating weather allows for the recapture of discretionary destination-dining spend lost to last week’s Arctic freeze.
Bearish
Columbia Sportswear (NYSE: COLM) The “Outerwear Hole” expands; a nationwide thaw combined with persistent West Coast warmth terminates biological urgency for technical shells.
Kohl’s (NYSE: KSS) Inventory trap; Midwest mildness prevents the necessary “flush” of winter clearance, forcing margin-dilutive markdowns to clear floor space for Spring.
Boot Barn (NYSE: BOOT) Sustained Sunbelt heat and a lack of northern “necessity” make heavy work boots a dead category as the full-price winter window closes.
Next Week’s Summary (Week Ending Jan 17th)
The Weather
Next week keeps the thaw theme alive, with warmth returning in areas that typically anchor winter demand. Meanwhile, some northern markets may normalize, but the broader story is continuation, not a clean return to seasonal cold.
Retail implication: persistence is the problem. One warm week is manageable. Two starts to rewrite the season — especially for apparel and any retailer still counting on a January cold rescue.
Bullish
Shake Shack (SHAK) NYC/DC thaw removes walk-in friction, triggering a pre-Arctic transaction spike as urban foot traffic recovers.
Starbucks (SBUX) Routine restoration across the Northeast/Ohio Valley stabilizes morning mobile-order volume as commuter road conditions improve.
Chipotle (CMG) Suburban momentum returns as moderating Midwest weather recaptures discretionary lunch and dinner wallet share.
Bearish
Columbia (COLM) Outerwear demand evaporates as the nationwide thaw terminates biological necessity for technical shells and insulated gear.
Kohl’s (KSS) Midwest mildness prevents seasonal inventory flushing, forcing margin-dilutive markdowns to clear floor space for Spring.
Boot Barn (BOOT) Persistent Sunbelt warmth and lack of Northern snow-track urgency stall heavy workwear sales as the winter window closes.
G2 Weather Retail Signal™ Exposure Index
The G2 Weather Retail Signal™ Exposure Index is a weighted metric designed to isolate the impact of weather from underlying business fundamentals.
It evaluates how regional weather anomalies intersect with a retailer’s geographic footprint and seasonal inventory mix to estimate the impact on margin and inventory turnover.
Exposure Index Definitions
Bullish: Strong alignment between weather and inventory. Weather conditions drive high-margin conversion and reduce promotional needs.
Neutral: Weather is negligible; regional wins are offset by losses elsewhere.
Insulated: Product mix (essentials/consumables) is structurally shielded from weather shifts.
Bearish: Significant misalignment. Adverse conditions suppress demand and increase the probability of markdowns.
G2 Weather Exposure Index: January 4th - 17th
G2 Weather Retail Signal™ Extended Outlook
The Thaw Is Temporary — Late January Favors Winter Again
Despite a short-lived January warm-up, forecast probabilities flip decisively toward renewed winter conditions in the second half of the month. By Jan 17–30, the odds exceed 80% for colder-than-normal conditions across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and Northeast, with snow risk back in play.
That setup reintroduces winter friction for northern markets — benefiting cold-exposed categories like outerwear, home heating, snow removal, and winter energy demand — while pressuring early-season spring categories. In contrast, the South and Southwest remain structurally warm, favoring lighter apparel, outdoor activity, and continued drag on winter-dependent demand across the Sunbelt.
High Conviction Exception
Forecast Period: Jan 17 – Jan 30, 2026
The Arctic Return Effect
Bullish
AutoZone (AZO) Arctic Return Dividend: Secondary wave of failure-based demand; fluctuating temps trigger chemical battery failures and cooling system stress.
Walmart (WMT) Defensive Loading: Above-normal precipitation (in the form of snow) drives bulk-stocking as consumers consolidate trips to avoid hazardous Northeast/Midwest roads.
O’Reilly (ORLY) Mechanical Necessity: Wet-cold tracks in the Ohio Valley increase inelastic sales for high-margin wipers, brakes, and salt-mitigation chemicals.
Bearish
Shake Shack (SHAK) Climate Friction: Arctic Return kills the NYC/DC thawmomentum, forcing urban consumers back into low-margin delivery channels.
Columbia (COLM) Outerwear Vacuum: Ridging in the West and Southwest terminates the biological necessity for technical gear in high-density brand hubs.
Kohl’s (KSS) Inventory Liability: Persistent Southern warmth and Northern snow-entry delays stall seasonal clearance, forcing deeper markdowns to clear Spring floor space.
Source: NOAA
Appendix
Source Note: This analysis is fueled by the data engine at WeatherMapping.com—I use WeatherMapping’s precision data to find the alpha hidden in the forecast. Terrific product!
Musical Coda
For no particular reason … The B-52s …
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