G2 Weather Signal™ Flash Report — Jan 12, 2026
The January Thaw Changed How People Shopped — Almost Overnight
Signal Summary
Weather resets demand. A record warm early January flipped consumer behavior, lifting traffic-driven categories while pressuring winter clearance.
Temperatures will pull back from extremes, not winter. Conditions turn colder than last week’s spike, but remain winter-relevant — supporting demand while keeping mobility elevated versus last year.
Next week splits the map. A Northwest winter reload collides with renewed warmth across the South and Ohio Valley, separating regional winners and losers.
Late January brings divergence. Cold friction returns to the East while the West pulls spring behavior forward too early, creating execution and margin risk.
A Weather-Driven Demand Reset
Last week delivered a clear reset in demand.
The U.S. posted a +8.8°F national temperature anomaly — the warmest early-January week in six years and nearly 14°F warmer than a year ago. When weather moves that fast, behavior flips.
Winter urgency evaporated mid-season. Clearance slowed just as January is supposed to do the work for cold-weather categories.
As the tables below show, the temperature shock drove immediate company-level divergence — accelerating traffic winners while forcing winter-exposed retailers into earlier-than-planned clearance, tightening inventory timing and margins.
At the same time, the warm-up became a tailwind for restaurants and mobility-driven spend. Fewer friction days meant more trips and cleaner traffic trends versus last year’s deeply cold setup.
The accelerant was the week-on-week change, especially across the Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Upper Midwest. After weeks of cold, real cabin fever had built — I felt it myself. When the weather broke, consumers didn’t ease back out. They surged.
Bottom line: this wasn’t noise. It was a behavioral inflection point. Winter didn’t lose because of pricing or promotions. It lost because the thermometer moved first.
Today’s Musical Coda … in memory of Phil Lesh.
Sometimes the light’s all shinin’ on me
Other times I can barely see
Lately it occurs to me
What a long, strange trip it’s been
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