G2 Weather Signal™ Flash Report — Jan 26, 2026
Cold Shuts the East; Warmth Keeps the West Moving
Signal Summary
Winter reasserted itself in the East: extreme cold and a multi-day snow band reinforced winter demand while increasing operational friction for dining and travel-sensitive categories.
The West told a different story: mild, dry conditions preserved mobility and kept early spring behavior intact.
Next week sharpens the split: strong re-warming in the West and Rockies contrasts with continued East Coast cold, setting up regional earnings dispersion.
Bottom line: this was not a national weather week—it was a regional separator with clear category winners and losers.
The Setup
Last week delivered the year’s first — and possibly the decade’s — true winter inflection, and likely the first weather event of 2026 with more than $1 billion in economic impact.
I had the opportunity to join CNBC’s Street Signs on Friday (and will be on again today at 4:30 ET) as it became clear this wasn’t just a winter storm, but a major ice event with earnings-level implications.
Last Week — Ice and Snow Still Reshaping Demand
Week Ending January 24, 2026
An Arctic front drove freezing rain and snow across much of the eastern U.S., snapping consumers back into winter mode as power outages continued to mount. Grocery trips consolidated, home-center urgency surged in emergency and repair categories, and outerwear reactivated — while spring apparel stalled.
Restaurants took a direct hit during peak weekend windows, as snow and ice removed occasions, pushed mix toward drive-thru and delivery, and pressured full-service volumes.
Critically, the disruption didn’t end with the storm. Ice-related outages and mobility friction are still playing out, extending the impact well beyond the weekend.
This Week — The Dig-Out: Arctic Cold Shifts the Signal to Recovery
Week Ending January 31, 2026
The narrative for the current week is dominated by the deep freeze —a massive Arctic airmass that has effectively locked the retail landscape following Winter Storm Fern. With temperature departures from normal reaching as low as -20°F in the Ohio Valley and -18°F in the Upper Midwest, the focus shifts from the pre-storm panic to the prolonged friction of the dig-out.
Recovery is not a light switch—just ask my back!
While the pre-storm surge favored Grocers last week, this week belongs to the recovery names as the nation grapples with over 1 million power outages and treacherous secondary roads that will suppress discretionary traffic through at least Wednesday.
Next Week — Weather Winners & Losers
Week Ending February 7, 2026
