G2 Weather Weekly by Paul Walsh
Don't Fire That Spring Promotion Yet
“Weather moves consumer demand. Of course it does. Every retailer knows it, but most find out after the fact. When it hits them where it counts—in the earnings.”
Benji and I took our morning walk yesterday (Sunday), like we do most days. I call it his morning constipational.
It was cloudy, raw, and still damp from yesterday’s much-needed rain — the kind of morning when Benji takes his time finding the perfect spot, then circles clockwise — anticyclonic, for you weather nerds — several times more than usual before sticking the landing and celebrating with his (extended) end zone dance.
Standing there in the cold, I thought about the Home Depot and Lowe’s five miles from my house. This is their season. Every raw, cold weekend morning like this one is a delayed sale — a consumer who stayed inside, skipped the nursery run, pushed the weekend project to next weekend.
The weather’s impact on consumers is like politics — all local.
The national headline misses the story. 39 degrees and windy in Philadelphia creates a completely different business reality than 78 degrees and sunny in Phoenix — even on the same morning, even for the same retailer.
That’s what the first half of May looks like across the country. Two completely different springs, running simultaneously, driving two completely different demand environments.
Weather moves consumer demand. Of course it does. Every retailer knows it — but most find out after the fact. It hits them where it counts, right in the earnings.
The problem isn’t awareness. It’s translation.
NOAA publishes some of the best raw weather data and forecasts in the world. Most of it’s free — you’ve already paid for it. But it lives buried in government databases, technical maps, and probability tables that were built for meteorologists, not merchants.
The gap between that data gobbledygook and a Monday morning planning decision is where most organizations get stuck.
That’s the gap G2 Weather Weekly fills. Every Monday, I plan to translate the signal — the 3-4 week probability outlook, the seasonal pattern, the year-over-year comp — into plain language for the people who actually have to act on it: retail merchants, CPG brand managers, restaurant operators, and health system planners.
This is not a weather forecast. It is a demand outlook. The difference matters.
Not every week has a strong signal. When the pattern is neutral, I won’t manufacture a story. G2 Weather Weekly is exception-based — I publish when the weather is doing something that matters for your business, and tell you what that is.
The Signal
NOAA’s latest 3-4 week outlook covers the period from May 9–22. The Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast are tracking cold and wet — with well-below-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall across the region. Chicago. Cleveland. Detroit. Minneapolis. Boston. New York.
The West and the Southwest are opposites. Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Seattle are tracking warm with no meaningful rain threat.
Two different springs. Two different demand environments. Same two weeks.
What It Means for Consumers
The cold, wet signal across the Midwest and Northeast covers the weeks before the Memorial Day weekend — the most important outdoor selling period of the spring.
Consumers don’t decide to buy a grill, start a patio project, or plant a garden on a cold, rainy Tuesday. They decide on a warm Saturday morning when the weather makes them feel like it’s finally time.
Cold, wet Saturdays in early May don’t just suppress sales — they delay intent. The consumer who didn’t make it to the nursery the first two weekends of May is the same consumer who shows up in force if Memorial Day delivers.
For retailers in Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, and Minneapolis, this is a two-week window when foot traffic softens and demand for outdoor projects stalls.
It’s not lost. It’s waiting.
In Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Southern California, the warm signal has been consistent for weeks. Outdoor living demand is building. The consumer is ready now.
What I’m Watching
Memorial Day weekend — May 23 through May 26 — falls just outside this forecast window. Last year, Milwaukee hit 49°F on the holiday weekend. Cleveland 52°F. Detroit 53°F. Both Home Depot and Lowe’s cited weather as a drag on May results.
The second-half-of-May forecast comes into range next Friday. If the Midwest and Northeast are relatively warm and dry into the holiday, you’re comparing against the coldest and wettest lead up to the Memorial Day weekend in recent memory across the most important home markets in the country. And then there’s pent-up demand …
That’s next week’s story.