Home Depot, Lowe's, and Target Beat Q1 Expectations. Weather Moved the Needle More Than Tax Refunds.
Two CFOs said weather mattered more than tax refunds. One called it the primary explanation for geographic performance. Neither put a weather signal in forward guidance.
Q: “Is the narrative weather? Or is it housing or anything else to it?” A: “It is almost completely driven by weather or weather comparison.”
— Morgan Stanley analyst Simeon Gutman and Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail, Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Three major retailers — Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Target — reported earnings this week. All three beat expectations, navigating a choppy quarter marked by shifting weather patterns, persistent DIY softness, and a macro environment that kept demand for large projects under pressure.
But across the two home center calls, the most significant demand variable — weather — still doesn’t have a systematic home in how these companies communicate forward guidance to investors.
Lowe’s CFO Brandon Sink settled the debate when JPMorgan’s Christopher Horvers pressed him on whether tax refunds were the primary Q1 lift.
Sink was direct: “We looked at Q1, the tax refund impact was more limited on our business. More significant dri…
