Looking Ahead: Colder Spring '25 Means Tough Sledding for US Retailers

Expected colder trends to challenge demand for spring merchandise and pressure margins

“When sales are strong, it’s because of brilliant merchandising; when sales are poor it’s because of bad weather.” — the universal weather excuse

I’m writing this in the warm comfort of my cozy home office in the western suburbs of Philadelphia (Go Birds!) while friends and former colleagues are on the final day of the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) “Big Show” in the tundra of midtown Manhattan.

To paraphrase Mark Twain (badly), the coldest weather I’ve ever felt was at the NRF show in January.

Just thinking about it hurts my fingers, ears, and feet.

So, what better time to talk about spring …

The 2025 spring selling season will likely be colder, perhaps even much colder, than 2024, when the US experienced its third warmest spring selling season (February to April) in 130 years.

This represents a significant headwind for US retailers, which will pressure margins and challenge CEOs and CFOs.

Combine the weather-related demand headwinds with the inflation uncertainty unleashed by the …