Lowe’s Q2: Weather Shifts Spark a Late-Quarter Comeback
After a slow, weather-challenged spring, Lowe’s finished Q2 with momentum — contrasting with Home Depot’s softer rebound.
“When the sun is shining, our business performs a lot better.” — Marvin Ellison, Lowes CEO
A Weather-Driven Quarter
Lowe’s reported Q2 sales of $24 billion, with comparable sales up 1.1% for the quarter. The story was shaped heavily by weather, which was referenced 15 times during the earnings call — underscoring how central it was to Lowe’s performance this quarter.
May: Comps down 1% as persistent rain and cooler temperatures held back seasonal sales.
June: Comps edged up 0.3% as conditions improved.
July: Comps surged 4.7%, fueled by a catch-up in outdoor, lawn, and cooling categories once weather normalized.
“Our performance clearly improved as the weather turned more favorable in June and July,” management emphasized.
Strength Beyond Weather
Even with uneven monthly comps, Lowe’s delivered:
Average ticket up 2.9%
Comparable transactions down 1.8%
Gross margin at 33.8%, a 37-basis-point improvement year-over-year driven by shrink reduction, credit revenue, and ongoing productivity initiatives (PPI).
“Our productivity efforts helped offset early-quarter weather headwinds,” leadership noted.
Lowe’s vs. Home Depot: A Tale of Two Recoveries
While both retailers faced early weather headwinds, Lowe’s appears to have captured more of the late-season recovery.
Lowe’s July comp growth (+4.7%) outpaced Home Depot’s rebound (+3.5%), suggesting Lowe’s was better positioned to capitalize on the weather shift.
“The recovery in July highlights the strength of our merchandising strategy in seasonal categories,” Lowe’s said.
Why This Matters
The weather effect on retail sales isn’t just a passing storyline — it’s a structural driver. For Lowe’s, the late-quarter surge shows:
Seasonal categories are highly sensitive to weather swings.
Execution in appliances, Pro, and online helped offset early softness.
Margins improved even in a choppy environment.
Home Depot, by contrast, has leaned more heavily on its Pro customer base, making it somewhat less weather-sensitive but also less exposed to late-season recoveries.
“Weather was a headwind early in the quarter but became a tailwind by July,” Lowe’s summed up.
The Bigger Picture: Weather Intelligence as Retail Strategy
Lowe’s Q2 is another case study in how weather drives demand volatility. For retailers, the ability to anticipate — not just react to — these swings is becoming a competitive advantage.
Hyperlocal forecasting can help merchants stock air conditioners before a heat wave, or snow blowers before a storm.
Weather-linked staffing can ensure stores are ready for demand spikes without overspending in quiet periods.
Financial hedging tools, like weather derivatives, can cushion margins when prolonged heat or rain cuts into seasonal sales.
In an era when the weather is more volatile but also more predictable, companies that integrate weather intelligence into core decision-making will outperform those relying on luck.
Lowe’s late-quarter rebound shows what happens when conditions align — the next step is building strategies so performance isn’t left to chance.
Investor Edge: Tracking Weather Mentions
One under-appreciated signal for investors: the number of weather mentions on earnings calls.
In Lowe’s Q2, weather was cited 15 times — a clear tell that it was a dominant driver of results.
When weather shows up frequently, it signals operational risk (when it hurts) or tailwind (when it helps).
Investors who track this can spot opportunities earlier — whether it’s a buying chance when weather suppresses comps, or caution when favorable weather props up results that may not be repeatable.
✅ Takeaway: Weather isn’t just background noise. For operators, it’s strategy. For investors, it’s signal.