Mind the Cone: The Forecast, Not the Storm, Drives Retail Demand
In hurricane season, the forecast of a storm is the primary driver of consumer behavior—and the key to proactive planning.
“If you’re ever wrong, there’s gonna be a lot of needlessly killed chickens.” —Southeast US Grocer
Many years ago, before I joined The Weather Channel (TWC), I used to forecast where I expected TWC producers to deploy Jim Cantore in advance of hurricanes.
Why?
Because when Jim shows up, he creates a storm surge.
The problem this causes is a classic supply/demand imbalance. Jim shows up at the beach, and the you-know-what hits the fan.
In this “use case,” we would predict where we thought TWC producers would deploy their talent (especially Jim), so that our client, a large southeast grocer, could ensure they had enough inventory of prepared chicken in the markets they were reporting from.
Prepared chicken?
It turns out that in Florida, people rush out and buy prepared chicken as soon as they can see the whites of the eyes of the storm—and Jim (or Mike Seidel, etc) showing up with a crew in the neighborhood is the trigger that sets off the rush.
The supply chain problem was that the grocer needed a day or two lead time to get the inventory (in this case, chickens) from their suppliers, in Arkansas, as I recall, in time to meet the rush.
So, to get that lead time, we were predicting where TWC was going to send their talent two or three days in advance of them showing up.
Which led to this quote delivered in a flawless southern drawl (cue Matthew McConaughey):
“If you’re ever wrong, there’s gonna be a lot of needlessly killed chickens.”
It was a high-pressure endeavor.
Of course, prepared chicken is just one example of how the forecast (again, not the storm) dramatically shifts consumer buying patterns.
Here’s what Walmart learned many (many!) years ago:
The experts mined the data and found that the stores would indeed need certain products -- and not just the usual flashlights. "We didn't know in the past that strawberry Pop-Tarts increase in sales, like seven times their normal sales rate, ahead of a hurricane," Ms. Dillman said in a recent interview. "And the pre-hurricane top-selling item was beer."
Thanks to those insights, trucks filled with toaster pastries and six-packs were soon speeding down Interstate 95 toward Wal-Marts in the path of Frances. Most of the products that were stocked for the storm sold quickly, the company said.
For retailers — whether you’re a small business serving a local community or a category manager overseeing thousands of stores — this is not a weather story. It’s a story about demand, supply chain, and operational planning.
The question is: how do you move from watching the forecast to acting on the forecast in a way that protects your business, serves your customers, and captures post-storm opportunity?
Today, as Tropical Storm Erin is churning in the Atlantic, I thought I’d share some high-level tips on how to prepare for the impacts of the forecasted storm and the ones that will surely follow.
Track the Right Signals — Not Just the Headlines
Storm chatter on social media can start weeks before an actual impact, but what matters is official NOAA/National Hurricane Center (NHC) data:
Cone of Uncertainty — helps gauge which markets to watch
Wind Probability Maps — identify likely disruptions
Storm Surge Forecasts — signals infrastructure and access risks
The earlier you can tie these maps to your market footprint, the better you can time inventory shifts, staffing, and messaging.
Use a “T-Minus” Timeline for Inventory & Operations
Whether you have one store or one thousand, hurricane preparation works best when tied to storm timelines:
Why it works:
You’re aligning inventory flow (i.e. prepared chicken or Strawberry pop-tarts or beer or bullets, etc.) with actual consumer behavior patterns — stocking for the prep surge, then quickly pivoting to recovery demand.
Plan for the Supply Chain Gap
Here’s the catch: consumer demand shifts faster than the supply chain. In hurricane-impacted regions:
Shoppers buy ahead of storm arrival, often wiping shelves clean in hours.
Post-storm, the focus shifts to recovery purchases — often before replenishment catches up.
Small businesses can use this to consolidate buying from regional wholesalers, while big-box managers can reposition inventory from unaffected DCs.
Bridge the “Availability Disconnect”
One of the most common hurricane retail failures is having demand with no supply:
SMB Tip: Build relationships now with backup suppliers who can drop-ship direct to store or customers post-storm.
Enterprise Tip: Use demand sensing tools to flag early SKU velocity spikes and override automated replenishment.
Communicate for Trust & Loyalty
During weather crises, the right message matters as much as the right product:
Share availability updates on social media and store signage.
Offer purchase limits on critical items to ensure access for more customers.
For post-storm recovery, highlight local delivery or curbside pickup if roads are clear.
This isn’t just sales protection — it’s long-term loyalty building.
Learn from the Data — Fast
After each storm, review:
Sell-through rates by SKU
Stock-out timing
Channel mix (online vs. in-store)
Customer feedback
That insight feeds the next storm cycle, making you faster and sharper each time.
Why This Matters Now
Post-2007 improvements in hurricane forecasting have saved up to $5 billion per storm in reduced losses.
For retailers, that’s proof: better forecasts + faster action = stronger outcomes.
Whether you’re running a single hardware store in Savannah or managing a large grocery chain, hurricane readiness is not just crisis management — it’s a competitive advantage.
Even as the storm season heats up, there is still time to prepare.
Helpful Forecast Resources
If you want to get neck deep into the data, in addition to the National Hurricane Center’s official forecasts, I recommend these three excellent Substack publications:
Eye on the Tropics — authored by my former TWC colleague Michael Lowry
Balanced Weather — relatively new Substack authored by former NOAA executive Alan Gerard
Weather Trader — written by Dr. Ryan Maue, a rock star in the weather-geek-osphere