Mind the Cone: The Forecast, Not the Storm, Drives Retail Demand

In hurricane season, the forecast of a storm is the primary driver of consumer behavior—and the key to proactive planning.

Image Source: Wikipedia

“If you’re ever wrong, there’s gonna be a lot of needlessly killed chickens.” —Southeast US Grocer

Many years ago, before I joined The Weather Channel (TWC), I used to forecast where I expected TWC producers to deploy Jim Cantore in advance of hurricanes.

Why?

Because when Jim shows up, he creates a storm surge.

The problem this causes is a classic supply/demand imbalance. Jim shows up at the beach, and the you-know-what hits the fan.

See: Running from Jim Cantore

In this “use case,” we would predict where we thought TWC producers would deploy their talent (especially Jim), so that our client, a large southeast grocer, could ensure they had enough inventory of prepared chicken in the markets they were reporting from.

Prepared chicken?

It turns out that in Florida, people rush out and buy prepared chicken as soon as they c…