Mind the GAP: Why the Retail Turnaround Story is About to Hit a +18°F Wall

Between an Atmospheric River washout in the West and record Southern warmth, the Christmas clearance cycle is starting early.

G2 Weather Signal™ — Flash Report
Paul Walsh · December 21, 2025

Christmas week check-in.

I spent time in stores across the Philly suburbs over the past few days — the kind of on-the-ground read that matters most when the calendar, inventory, and weather are all converging.

The pattern was consistent.

Heavy coats were largely absent. Not featured, not stacked, not fighting for floor space. Whether they sold through earlier or never arrived in depth is almost beside the point at this stage — the signal is the same: that category isn’t driving incremental volume right now.

What was everywhere were sweaters and fleece. Deep racks. Full size runs. And unmistakable markdown pressure.

Promotions weren’t surgical or selective — they were broad, aggressive, and clearly designed to move volume before the calendar turns.

My wife was thrilled to find a deal at Old Navy — a sweater ticketed at $58 marked down 50%, with an additional military discount layered on top. Great outcome for the shopper. Clear …