The Calendar Says Spring, But is Winter Coming?

Retailers bracing for a perfect storm of demand risk fueled by a tough weather comparison and Trump-flation

While the first of March marks the start of meteorological spring, it feels like winter is coming for retailers.

In addition to Trump’s “dumbest in history” tariff shenanigans, retailers face a tough weather comparison, which will create an additional headwind for demand and sales that will add another leg down for earnings.

I wrote about the weather challenges back in January. Here’s my original post from January 15th —

Looking Ahead: Colder Spring '25 Means Tough Sledding for US Retailers

The 2025 spring selling season will likely be colder, perhaps even much colder, than 2024, when the US experienced its third warmest spring selling season (February to April) in 130 years.

This represents a significant headwind for US retailers, which will pressure margins and challenge CEOs and CFOs.

Combine the weather-related demand headwinds with the inflation uncertainty unleashed by the incoming Trump administration, and the first quarter looks, to say the least, sporty for retailers.

When you comb…