The silver lining on Target's terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day

Target's third-quarter earnings came out yesterday. The results were disappointing, and the fallout ugly.

Here's the CNBC headline: Target shares plunge after discounter cuts forecast, and the company posts its biggest earnings miss in two years.

When talking about total company earnings across an entire quarter, there are many reasons for missing or exceeding the street's expectations, and the weather's impact on consumer demand is only one of those reasons.

However, in Q3, for retailers like Target with large assortments of softlines, the weather can be (to use an overused phrase that I hate) a "game-changer"—in good and bad ways.

Here's why:

The seasonality of fall sales patterns in Q3 (August - October) results in the heaviest volumes expected in October when normal weather conditions drive the most significant demand for "seasonal" product categories.

Colder-than-average Octobers result in stronger-than-expected sales, and warmer-than-normal Octobers result in the opposite.

It's a fraug…