The Surprising Journey of a Fragile Rose
Because behind every rose is a love story ... and a weather report
I’m resharing this dispatch that I originally sent on this date last year.
At the time, I had only a handful of subscribers, so given the date, I thought it was worth sharing again since most of you likely haven’t seen it.
The video is absolutely lovely and was produced by our talented team at The Weather Company back in 2014 … in my opinion, the “golden age” of TWC.
By the way, Kroger (NYSE: KR) the grocer featured in the video, is showing up as a “weather bull” in the G2 Weather Intelligence index this month, scoring a 74 out of 100, driven by pantry loading and a “renewed focus on leveraging store-based fulfillment and partnerships with third-party delivery platforms like Instacart, DoorDash, and Uber Eats.”
Take a few minutes and watch the video … it’ll tug at your heartstrings.
Originally published on February 13, 2025
In honor of Valentine’s Day, I thought I’d share this lovely short video produced by The Weather Company before our acquisition by IBM.
The journey from Bogota, Colombia is a long one for a fragile rose traveling into the dead of winter. A chain of farmers, truck drivers and florists all rely on the weather forecast to make sure the precious cargo arrives on schedule. Because behind every rose is a love story.
This is a great example of how an end-to-end weather strategy that spans commodity pricing (in this case, roses), product planning, distribution, and marketing can combine to create value for consumers and, in turn, for the retailers that serve them.
If you have 4 or 5 minutes, I highly recommend it … it might make you smile.
It did me.
For more on roses and weather, I asked Gemini (Google’s AI), to give me the low-down on the importance of weather in Colombia on the price of roses.
It did a decent job —
Here's how weather impacts the price of roses from Colombia, with some added nuances:
1. Microclimates and Altitude:
Ideal Growing Conditions: Colombia's unique geography, with its diverse microclimates and high-altitude valleys, provides ideal growing conditions for roses. These regions often have consistent temperatures, ample sunlight, and sufficient rainfall, allowing for year-round production. However, even within these regions, specific weather variations can impact yields and quality.
Altitude and Temperature: Roses grown at higher altitudes in Colombia tend to have larger blooms and more vibrant colors due to the cooler temperatures. However, these areas can also be more susceptible to frost or hail, which can damage crops.
2. Weather Patterns and Seasons:
Rainy Seasons: Colombia experiences rainy seasons, which can increase the risk of fungal diseases like botrytis. This can affect rose production and lead to higher prices due to increased costs for disease control and potential crop losses.
Dry Seasons: During dry seasons, growers may face challenges with irrigation and water availability, potentially affecting the size and quality of roses. This can also lead to higher prices due to reduced supply.
3. El Niño and La Niña:
El Niño: This climate phenomenon can bring drier and warmer conditions to some parts of Colombia, potentially affecting rose production. It can also increase the risk of pests and diseases, requiring growers to invest more in crop protection.
La Niña: La Niña, on the other hand, can bring excessive rainfall and cooler temperatures, increasing the risk of fungal diseases and potentially disrupting transportation due to flooding or landslides.
4. Export-Oriented Market:
Global Demand: Colombia's rose industry is heavily export-oriented, with a significant portion of its roses shipped to the US and other countries. Weather conditions in Colombia directly impact the global supply of roses and can affect prices worldwide, especially during peak demand periods like Valentine's Day.
Transportation Challenges: Weather conditions can also affect the transportation of roses from Colombia to other countries. Delays due to storms or logistical issues can impact the freshness and availability of roses, leading to price fluctuations.
5. Climate Change Concerns:
Increased Variability: Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves, which can pose significant challenges to rose growers in Colombia. These changes can lead to greater price volatility and potential long-term impacts on the industry.
Specific Examples:
Recent La Niña Impacts: The recent La Niña phenomenon has caused heavy rains in Colombia, leading to increased fungal diseases and affecting rose production. This has contributed to higher prices for roses in the international market.
Valentine's Day Demand: During Valentine's Day, the demand for roses skyrockets, and any weather-related issues in Colombia can significantly impact prices. Even a minor disruption in production or transportation can lead to shortages and price hikes for consumers.
In summary, weather conditions in Colombia play a critical role in determining the price of roses, both locally and internationally. Growers need to be adaptable and implement strategies to mitigate the impacts of weather events to ensure a stable supply of high-quality roses.