The Tractor Supply Company's $85M Miss? Blame the Colder Spring

Three-week weather-driven delay to the start of the spring selling season trumps tariff anxiety

“ …based on our analysis of first quarter performance, we believe our underperformance was primarily driven by adverse weather conditions, rather than broader macroeconomic trends.” – Kurt Barton, CFO, The Tractor Supply Company

“It ain’t bragging if it’s true.” — Anon

I don’t know about you, but I hate it when prognosticators and politicians (especially politicians!) declare victory based on a prediction that comes true or a policy effort that delivers results.

But, as attributed to everyone from Muhammad Ali, to Yogi Berra to Mark Twain, it ain’t bragging if it’s true.

So get ready for my victory lap …

Here’s what I shared on January 15th of this year:

Looking Ahead: Colder Spring '25 Means Tough Sledding for US Retailers — Expected colder trends to challenge demand for spring merchandise and pressure margins

The 2025 spring selling season will likely be colder, perhaps even much colder, than 2024, when the US experienced its third warmest spring selling season (February to April) in 13…