Retailer’s Warm Holiday Risk

A colder fall may have already cashed in the seasonal demand that powered last year’s holiday surge

Last year, mild weather delayed the start of winter. It kept coats on racks, boots in boxes, and heaters in warehouses well into November.

Then December flipped the switch.

Temperatures dropped hard across much of the country, and all that pent-up demand came rushing in. Seasonal categories — outerwear, boots, heaters — surged just in time for the holidays. It was the perfect setup: a late cold shot that aligned with peak shopping weeks.

Data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau shows that core retail sales during the 2024 holiday season grew an unexpectedly high 4% over 2023 to a record $994.1 billion, coming in ahead of the National Retail Federation’s forecast, NRF said. Sales for the full year grew 3.6% over 2023 to a record $5.28 trillion. -National Retail Federation

The weather didn’t just cooperate. It saved the holiday quarter.