Retailer’s Warm Holiday Risk
A colder fall may have already cashed in the seasonal demand that powered last year’s holiday surge
Last year, mild weather delayed the start of winter. It kept coats on racks, boots in boxes, and heaters in warehouses well into November.
Then December flipped the switch.
Temperatures dropped hard across much of the country, and all that pent-up demand came rushing in. Seasonal categories — outerwear, boots, heaters — surged just in time for the holidays. It was the perfect setup: a late cold shot that aligned with peak shopping weeks.
Data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau shows that core retail sales during the 2024 holiday season grew an unexpectedly high 4% over 2023 to a record $994.1 billion, coming in ahead of the National Retail Federation’s forecast, NRF said. Sales for the full year grew 3.6% over 2023 to a record $5.28 trillion. -National Retail Federation
The weather didn’t just cooperate. It saved the holiday quarter.
This Year Feels Different
This fall flipped the script. Cooler weather settled in early across much of the country — the kind of chill that turns thinking about winter into shopping for winter.
Great news if you needed to move Q3 inventory. Not so great if your playbook counts on a December cold snap to spark demand.
Because the weather dividend has already been paid. The same sales that hit in December last year likely showed up in October and early November.
Retailers will enter the holidays with a head start — but not much left in reserve.
Forecast: Fewer Tailwinds Ahead
The latest NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast indicates a high probability of warmer-than-normal temperatures across the eastern half of the country from late November to early December.
If the warm pattern holds, this holiday season will look nothing like last year’s. Early December 2024 brought a sharp chill and a burst of cold-weather buying. This year’s outlook — especially for the eastern half of the country — leans warmer.
Warm weather doesn’t cancel the holidays. It just changes what people buy.
Fewer coats and boots. More gadgets, décor, and indoor comforts. Spending doesn’t disappear — it migrates. But that migration leaves retailers who depend on seasonal categories with less room to run.
The problem is that the macro story isn’t any more forgiving.
Confidence is down, inflation’s still sticky, and tariff talk is back in the headlines. In a healthy economy, shoppers might shift their spend to non-seasonal categories without much friction. But this year, wallets are tighter, baskets smaller, and promotions heavier.
The weather might shape the mood, but the wallet dictates what actually goes in the cart.
What to Watch
Over the next few weeks, I’ll be tracking how retailers describe Q3 performance.
Listen for words like “front-loaded” or “early pull-through.” Those are signals that October and early November weather already captured some of the seasonal lift.
One early data point to watch: Dillard’s just reported a strong Q3, beating earnings expectations and highlighting robust demand for higher-end apparel.
That performance lines up with what the weather implied — colder early-season conditions pulling forward outerwear and seasonal fashion sales. The question now is whether that strength leaves less fuel in the tank for December, especially if the mild pattern takes hold.
Pay attention to markdowns in December, particularly in cold-sensitive categories. And watch the regional commentary — the South and East will be critical in gauging how warmth reshapes demand.
The other signal: online vs. in-store. Warmer conditions tend to favor foot traffic, but only if confidence holds up. If not, even good weather won’t be enough to bring shoppers off the couch — and the wallet will decide what they buy.
The G2 Weather Take
Last year’s mild fall built pressure — a season waiting to happen — and when December finally turned cold, it all hit at once.
This year, the cold season arrived earlier and likely expended that energy before the holiday shopping season even began.
But none of this is random. It’s predictable. The data said it months ago — the anomalies, the forecasts, the timing shifts. If you’ve been following G2 Weather Intelligence, you saw it coming.
Knowing what’s next is easy. Acting before everyone else does — that’s the hard part. That’s where the value lives.