TJX Defies the Heat, But October Could Tell the Real Story
With minimal Q2 weather impact, TJX is positioned for a stronger Q3 as falling temperatures boost apparel and seasonal sales.
We’re deep into U.S. retail earnings season, and I’ll be tracking how executives are framing the role of weather in shaping sales and margins. Expect more quick-turn analyses like this over the next couple of weeks as results roll in.
Although Q2 (May–July) isn’t usually the most weather-sensitive quarter—compared with fall and winter (Q3/Q4) or early spring (Q1)—weather can still leave a noticeable mark on both traffic and profitability. Margins, in particular, often feel the effects year-round.
Whereas Home Depot and Lowe’s felt the brunt of June’s storms and July’s heat wave, TJX’s real weather sensitivity tends to come later in the year, when cooler fall temperatures lift demand for apparel.
Today’s focus: TJX (NYSE: TJX), the off-price retail leader.
📈 The Quarter in Brief
Q2 sales: $24 billion
Comparable sales: +1.1%
Monthly comps:
May: -1% (unfavorable weather + traffic softness)
June: +0.3% (partial rebound as conditions normalized)
July: +4.7% (weather boost + strong demand in apparel, accessories, and home)
Average ticket: +2.9%
Transactions: -1.8%
Adjusted gross margin: 33.8% (+37 bps YoY, helped by shrink improvement, credit revenue, and productivity gains)
🌤️ Weather Mentions: TJX vs Lowe’s & Home Depot
Weather barely featured in TJX’s Q2 call—mentioned only a couple of times—yet the company still acknowledged its role in shaping the quarter:
Ernie Herrman (CEO):
“There was a little bit of, I guess, call it a little bit of a lull in the middle of the quarter.”
On June softness:
“June, there was a little bit of weather that negatively impacted us, but we came out … even stronger in July.”
By contrast, Lowe’s mentioned weather 15 times, tying much of its recovery to the shift in seasonal categories. Home Depot leaned heavily on storms and heatwaves, framing weather as a key catalyst for categories like roofing, HVAC, and garden.
Takeaway:
TJX: Weather = minor Q2 headwind
Lowe’s: Weather = seasonal lifeline
Home Depot: Weather = event-driven demand engine
🍂 Why Q3 Is the Real Test
Off-price retailers like TJX are less exposed to weather swings in summer, when consumers shop broadly for apparel, accessories, and home goods. That makes Q2 relatively resilient, even with June’s drag.
But fall is different.
Q3—and particularly October—is when weather sensitivity spikes. Cooler YoY temperatures this fall are expected to drive stronger demand for jackets, sweaters, and seasonal home goods, giving TJX a clear tailwind that Lowe’s and Home Depot won’t benefit from in the same way.
I reviewed that in my July 21st dispatch —
Retail Silver Lining? Colder Temperatures to Drive Stronger Fall/Holiday '25 Demand
While tariffs may pressure margins, colder YoY trends across U.S. regions could boost demand for essential seasonal products — offering retailers a weather-driven silver lining.
In other words, weather didn’t matter much in Q2, but it could be the accelerant (rocket fuel?) in Q3.
🔑 Key Takeaways
Q2 was steady: modest comp gains despite June softness.
Weather barely moved the needle at the chain level, in stark contrast to Lowe’s (15 mentions) and Home Depot’s event-driven spikes.
Q3 will be different: Off-price retailers like TJX are more sensitive to colder fall weather, and October is shaping up to be a demand catalyst.
Investors and analysts should watch October comps closely—expected cooler YoY temperatures could translate into outsized seasonal sales gains.