TJX Defies the Heat, But October Could Tell the Real Story

With minimal Q2 weather impact, TJX is positioned for a stronger Q3 as falling temperatures boost apparel and seasonal sales.

We’re deep into U.S. retail earnings season, and I’ll be tracking how executives are framing the role of weather in shaping sales and margins. Expect more quick-turn analyses like this over the next couple of weeks as results roll in.

Although Q2 (May–July) isn’t usually the most weather-sensitive quarter—compared with fall and winter (Q3/Q4) or early spring (Q1)—weather can still leave a noticeable mark on both traffic and profitability. Margins, in particular, often feel the effects year-round.

Whereas Home Depot and Lowe’s felt the brunt of June’s storms and July’s heat wave, TJX’s real weather sensitivity tends to come later in the year, when cooler fall temperatures lift demand for apparel.

Today’s focus: TJX (NYSE: TJX), the off-price retail leader.