Weather Tailwinds and Tariff Headwinds: How a Cooler Fall Is Rebalancing Retail

Favorable fall temperatures and a calm hurricane season have restored seasonal demand — yet tariff uncertainty threatens to undo the atmosphere’s good work.

O hushed October morning mild, Thy leaves have ripened to the fall; To-morrow’s wind, if it be wild, Should waste them all. — Robert Frost

After a volatile 2024 defined by unseasonably warm conditions (the warmest in 130 years) and painful inventory markdowns, Fall 2025 is delivering the opposite.

Cooler-than-last-year temperatures across the Eastern U.S., combined with a quiet tropical season, are providing a critical weather-driven tailwind for corporate earnings heading into Q4.