GAP's Weather Problem Isn't the Weather

G2 Weather Signal | Q4 Earnings Dispatch | March 6, 2026

Old Navy, December 2025. Bitter cold outside. Sweaters at 50% off. Outerwear thin on the floor. The weather signal was working. The inventory wasn't. Management never mentioned either. Image Source: G2 Weather Intelligence

This morning, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell 0.2% in January — the biggest monthly decline since May — below economists' expectations of flat, with department store sales leading the decline at -6%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that February payrolls fell by 92,000, nearly double the estimates.

Both agencies cited the same culprit: severe winter weather. The storms were real. The disruption was real. But the primary story of this retail earnings season is not the January storms.

It’s what happened before them.