When a “Forecast Miss” Prevents Tens of Millions in Losses
A reminder that weather intelligence creates value when it changes decisions—not when it looks perfect
Earlier this week, Alan Gerard of the Balanced Weather Substack (a publication I highly recommend!) did something rare—and important.
He corrected his own initial assessment of the recent historic flooding along Washington State’s Skagit River after new reporting clarified what actually happened.
At first glance, it looked like a major forecast miss. The National Weather Service (NWS) had projected record-shattering river crests—levels that ultimately did not materialize.
The truth turned out to be far more consequential.
Based on those extreme flood forecasts, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) proactively took control of upstream dam operations, impounding roughly 50,000 cubic feet per second of flow into Ross Lake.
That single operational decision reduced downstream river crests by an estimated 4–6 feet—dramatically limiting…
