When Execution Beats the Weather
What the Weather Told Us — And What We’re Learning
“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself — and you are the easiest person to fool." — Richard Feynman
Ross Stores (ROST) and Target (TGT) reported on Tuesday. Before we look ahead to Thursday, here’s how the weather signal performed and what we’re adjusting.
Ross Stores (ROST) | Q4 Signal: D- (12/100) | Significant Headwind
The G2 signal flagged ROST as the most weather-exposed retailer heading into Q4. The signal was mostly wrong — and the transcript told us exactly why.
ROST posted a +9% comp on $6.64 billion in revenue, beating Street expectations by roughly $260 million. Management confirmed that weather cost them approximately $66 million in revenue — about 100 basis points of comp — but the culprit was January storm traffic suppression, not the California warmth the signal emphasized. Outerwear was called out as one of the strongest categories of the quarter.
The model overweighted California rain as a traffic and demand suppressor. It underweighted d…
