When Winter Stops Selling and Starts Squeezing
Weather Stops Driving Sales — and Starts Driving Margins
G2 Weather Signal™ — Flash Report
Paul Walsh · December 15, 2025
Signal Summary
Margin Risk Confirmed
A 70–90% probability of above-normal warmth across the South and Southwest removes any late-season inventory rescue. Winter demand that doesn’t arrive now won’t arrive later, forcing earlier, margin-compressing markdowns — with the risk concentrated in structurally exposed names like ROST.Traffic ≠ Conversion
Super Saturday may deliver traffic, but persistent warmth and higher household costs limit conversion, keeping the risk concentrated in mix and execution for TGT, TJX, BURL, and WMT.Investor Implication
This is a margin-and-timing setup, not a demand trade—focus on gross-margin sensitivity and inventory risk, not traffic headlines.
The Setup
I absolutely hate Christmas shopping. I’m bad at it, my feet and back hurt from carrying the goods—and, to be transparent, I’ve been known to whine a bit (… are we done yet?).
But my wife—who is, without question, the …
