G2 Weather Signal™ Flash Report: Dec. 29, 2025
Cold North, Warm South Are Splitting Retail Demand and Pricing
"The only way out is through.” —Robert Frost
Paul Walsh · December 29, 2025
Signal Summary
The Northeast Freeze Delivers: Winter remains decisive in cold-weighted markets (Northeast −5.7°F vs normal, snow and ice), supporting late-season margins and essentials-driven traffic for BJ’s Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ).
The Sunbelt Squeeze Continues: Extreme warmth comp’d to normal persists across the South (+15.6°F last week; +11.2°F this week; +13.7°F next week), extending the clearance and conversion headwind for winter seasonal apparel, including Boot Barn (NYSE: BOOT) and Dillard’s (NYSE: DDS).
Precipitation Becomes an Execution Risk: Heavier rain and snow expand next week into the Northeast (2.8”) and Northwest (2.4”), increasing traffic volatility and operational risk without changing the underlying demand backdrop.
Inventory Risk Widens by Region: The gap is growing between winter-active Northeast and springlike South. Misaligned apparel inventories raise …
