Retail Silver Lining? Colder Temperatures to Drive Stronger Fall/Holiday '25 Demand
While tariffs may pressure margins, colder YoY trends across U.S. regions could boost demand for essential seasonal products — offering retailers a weather-driven silver lining.
“You can’t get too much winter in the winter.” - Robert Frost
Even as we face yet another dangerous heatwave across the heart of the US, it’s not too early to start the conversation around the impact of weather on the fall and holiday shopping season.
So let’s do it …
As the retail industry braces for a turbulent macro environment — including inflation uncertainty surrounding the impact of Trump tariffs — a quiet but powerful factor may help stabilize demand during the all-important (and upcoming) holiday shopping season … the weather.
According to G2 Weather’s statistical modeling of year-over-year temperature patterns by U.S. region and NRF-aligned fiscal week, Fall and Holiday 2025 are set to be significantly colder than 2024.
This isn’t a speculative forecast — it’s a scenario built on observed weekly data from last year and a well-established tendency of weather to revert toward long-term norms.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to G2 Weather Intelligence to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.