Winners, Losers, and $400M on the Line: How Weather Moved Retail in Fall 2024
Home Depot cashed in on storms, Burlington lost to warmth — proof that weather remains a predictable driver of consumer behavior.
Editor’s note: This is a recap of Q3 2024 earnings season. I’m sharing it again as we enter this year’s fall quarter because the patterns we saw last year — hurricanes, heat, and the tug-of-war between seasonal demand and unseasonable weather — remain instructive for what lies ahead.
Weather Wasn’t Just an Excuse in 2024
In Q3 2024, publicly traded retailers repeatedly cited weather as a driver of results. Some blamed hurricanes and unseasonable warmth for missed sales; others credited extended fall conditions for tailwinds.
Taken together, weather accounted for an estimated $403 million swing in quarterly results — a clear signal that climate factors are shaping earnings in measurable ways.
Who Benefited, Who Suffered
Home Depot (NYSE: HD) — Reported a $200M boost tied to hurricanes and favorable outdoor project weather.
Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW) — Delivered October growth thanks to hurricane-driven demand for cleanup and emergency supplies.
Gap Inc. (NYSE: GAP) — Lost about $38M as unseasonably warm September weather delayed kids’ and baby apparel sales.
Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST) — Weather shaved ~$51M off comps, combining hurricane effects and warm temps.
Burlington (NYSE: BURL) — Took the hardest hit: ~$101M in lost sales, with warmth alone responsible for ~75% of the drag.
American Eagle (NYSE: AEO) — Noted a $13M weather drag, missing guidance by a narrow margin.
Lessons from 2024
The 2024 fall quarter proved once again that weather is not a random variable but a predictable force:
Retailers with assortments aligned to extended warmth (like home improvement) found opportunity.
Retailers dependent on cold-weather categories (like outerwear) suffered until the chill finally arrived.
Geography and timing were as critical as product mix.
Why It Matters for 2025
Last year’s fall season showed how closely consumer behavior tracks to temperature swings and storm events. As we move into Fall 2025, the same dynamics are at play — and the memory of last year’s colder Black Friday start will influence how shoppers respond this time around.
✅ Takeaway: 2024 reminded us that weather is a material, manageable driver of retail performance. The question now is: who’s ready to anticipate and act on the same patterns this year?
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