Winter Storm Hernando: The Retail Surge is Happening Right Now
$1.5B in Weekend Sales Pulled Forward as 34,500 Retailers See 45% Traffic Surge Ahead of Sunday Snowfall
The pre-storm surge is happening … now!
Winter Storm Hernando hits the Northeast tomorrow (Sunday) with 12-18”+ of snow expected through Monday. The retail impact isn’t tomorrow when the snow falls — it’s today, in the 24-hour window before conditions worsen.
The Fern Benchmark
Winter Storm Fern (late January) gives us the playbook. Placer.ai tracked traffic patterns in the 48 hours before Fern hit, and the numbers show how compressed storm-driven demand actually is.
Traffic lift on Jan 23 (day before Fern):
Home Improvement & Furnishings: +41.7%
Grocery Stores: +28.4%
Discount & Dollar Stores: +25.5%
Drugstores & Pharmacies: +21.0%
Superstores: +19.9%
Pet Stores & Services: +18.5%
The pattern was clear: traffic doubled from Jan 22 to Jan 23. Consumers front-loaded their preparation into a narrow window, peaking 24 hours before the storm hit. Once Fern arrived, traffic cratered.
Fern also showed something important about sequencing: home-focused categories led. Consumers secured their physical spaces first (generators, heating supplies, snow-removal equipment), then stocked their pantries. Pet supplies came last — flat traffic Jan 22, then +18.5% on Jan 23 as people realized they’d forgotten.
The geographic data reinforced this. The Midwest saw peak traffic on Jan 22 as Fern approached. By Jan 23, the South and East Coast lit up as the storm moved. And critically, the Midwest showed slowdowns on Jan 23 — demand was finite and front-loaded. Once prep trips were complete, traffic tapered.
Hernando vs. Fern: Why Today is Bigger
Hernando is tracking heavier and hitting denser population centers than Fern:
Based on these factors, today’s traffic surge is likely exceeding Fern’s benchmarks:
Expected lift today (Feb 21 — day before storm):
Home centers (HD, LOW): +45-50%
Grocery (WMT, TGT, BJ’s): +30-35%
Dollar stores: +28-32%
The 34,500 retail/restaurant locations in Hernando’s path represent roughly $3.6 billion in normal weekend sales. Today is pulling forward an estimated $1.2-1.5 billion of that demand — pantry-loading, emergency prep, last-minute runs for generators and shovels.
Yesterday (Friday) saw the early wave — people (my wife and I included) getting ahead of the rush. Today (Saturday) is peak surge — the procrastinators, the people who forgot something, and everyone who saw the Friday news coverage and decided to act.
By tonight, traffic drops as people hunker down. Tomorrow and Monday, the crater begins.
What Gets Lost vs. What Gets Redistributed
This is where it gets interesting for Q1 FY26 comps (Feb-April quarter for many retailers).
Redistributed demand (grocery, home centers):
Today’s surge shows up as consolidated weekly sales growth
Timing shifts (Sat vs. Sun/Mon), but dollars don’t disappear
Estimated redistribution: ~$900M-1.1B
Q1 FY26 impact: Neutral to slightly positive (demand compressed into fewer days = better inventory turn, less discounting)
Truly lost demand (restaurants, discretionary):
You can’t eat Saturday’s dinner twice
Weekend traffic for casual dining, malls, and impulse purchases just vanishes
Estimated loss: ~$600-700M
Q1 FY26 impact: Negative for dining (especially casual dining concepts with heavy Northeast exposure)
The difference matters for how you read earnings calls over the next few weeks. When HD or LOW reports this week (Feb 24-25), they’re reporting Q4 FY25 (Nov-Dec-Jan), so Hernando doesn’t show up. But listen for commentary about early Q1 FY26 trends or February month-to-date color.
For restaurants reporting in March/April, watch for casual dining concepts with heavy Northeast exposure (DRI, CAKE, etc.) to cite the impact of February weekend weather on Q1 FY26 comps.
The Pattern That Matters
Storm-driven retail demand is:
Front-loaded (peaks 24 hours before impact)
Finite (once prep trips complete, traffic tapers)
Local (consumers respond when conditions feel imminent in their area)
Category-sequenced (home first, then pantry, then pets)
Fern validated this. Hernando is following the same script — and it’s happening right now.
The retailers who win are the ones who anticipated today’s surge — inventory positioned, labor scheduled, omnichannel infrastructure ready. The ones who planned for “weekend storm traffic” are missing it.
By the time the snow starts falling tomorrow, the economic impact will already be baked in.
What I’m Watching Monday
Full validation in Monday’s Flash Report:
Did today’s surge materialize as expected? (anecdotal evidence, news coverage, parking lot satellite data)
Early Q1 FY26 comp implications for the 36 retailers/restaurants in the path
HD/LOW earnings previews (both report Q4 FY25 this week — Hernando won’t show up, but Feb trends might get mentioned)
For now, the call is simple: Today is the story. Tomorrow/Monday is the crater. Weekly sales show redistribution, not devastation. Q1 FY26 comps will reflect a compressed demand event, not a loss.
If you’re in the Northeast and seeing packed parking lots today, or if you have visibility into real-time traffic data, I’d love to hear what you’re seeing — this is exactly the kind of ground-truth validation that sharpens the model.
— Paul
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