Winter Storms Bookended the Holiday Season — and Retail Earnings Felt It
Weather, Not Demand, Drove Holiday Retail Weakness
According to RetailNext, U.S. in-store foot traffic declined 5.8% year over year over Black Friday weekend, a data point that initially fit a familiar holiday narrative: cautious consumers, stretched budgets, and a softer retail environment.
But viewed across the entire holiday shopping period — from Black Friday through Super Saturday — that headline masks a more important force shaping results.
Weather repeatedly interfered with access at the most critical moments.
The most important number from Black Friday wasn’t the national average. It was this: Saturday traffic in the Midwest collapsed by 41.8%, driven almost entirely by severe winter weather tied to Winter Storm Bellamy.
That single regional shock was large enough to drag down the national figure materially.
This wasn’t a demand problem. It was an access problem.
