G2 Weather Signal™ Flash Report — Feb 21, 2026
From Surge to Stall to Spring: Weather Is Resetting Demand in Real Time
February is where winter lingers — and spring teases.
Signal Summary
Pattern Reversal: Last week’s relative warmth across the central and eastern U.S. flips this week as Winter Storm Hernando delivers cold and snow to the Northeast corridor. Next week, warmth returns aggressively.
Hernando Validation: Saturday’s pre-storm surge materialized as predicted—grocery and home center traffic spiked 30-45% ahead of Sunday’s snowfall. The surge is over. The crater begins today.
HD/LOW Earnings (This Week): Weather signal neutral (50/100) for Q4 FY25 (Nov-Jan). Monthly volatility (warm November, volatile December, cold January) averaged to near-normal conditions. Weather won’t drive the earnings narrative—Pro channel, big-ticket, and margins will.
Spring Acceleration: Next week’s forecast shows exceptional warmth across the South and Southeast (+10°F to +16°F), pulling forward outdoor, apparel, and dining demand ahead of the retail calendar.
March Setup: Full 4-week outlook and company-level positioning for this weather-critical month available to premium subscribers.
The Setup
The week doesn’t transition cleanly. It splits.
Last week delivered sustained warmth across the central and eastern U.S.—the Ohio Valley ran 11°F above normal, the Upper Midwest 9.5°F, and the Southeast 8°F. That warmth extended the outdoor project window, supported early spring apparel transitions, and reduced heating-driven demand.
This week flips. Winter Storm Hernando moved through the Northeast corridor over the weekend, delivering up to 2 feet of snow on the hugely populated I95 corridor. The Northeast drops -6°F below normal this week, while the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley follow suit.
The storm redistributed weekend sales—Friday and Saturday’s pre-storm surge pulled demand forward, while Sunday afternoon and Monday’s traffic cratered.
Next week, warmth returns with force. The South is forecast at +15.6°F above normal, the Southeast +10.3°F. Spring demand accelerates two weeks ahead of the calendar.
This isn’t a seasonal handoff. It’s week-to-week volatility masking the underlying reality: weather is creating traffic friction and category timing shifts, but consolidated monthly impacts remain modest.
Last Week Actual — Week Ending February 21, 2026
The pre-storm week delivered broad, relative warmth across the central and eastern U.S., pulling forward early-spring activity and outdoor demand. At G2 Weather HQ in the western suburbs of Philly, cabin fever broke—for about five minutes.
Warmth dominated: the Ohio Valley (+11.4°F), Upper Midwest (+9.5°F), Southeast (+8.0°F), and South (+6.4°F) all ran significantly above normal. Only the West (-5.2°F) and Northwest (-2.8°F) stayed cool.
The West also saw elevated precipitation (+1.8” above normal), extending the rain-driven traffic friction that has pressured West Coast retailers throughout February.
This Week — Week Ending February 28, 2026
The pattern flips. Winter Storm Hernando delivered 12-18”+ of snow across the Northeast corridor over the weekend, and the cold settles in this week. The Northeast drops -6°F below normal, the Ohio Valley -1.4°F, and the Upper Midwest -0.9°F. The Southeast experiences a sharp reversal (-5.1°F), creating a brief cold pocket.
Meanwhile, the West surges warm (+9.4°F), and the Southwest hits +13.1°F—extending outdoor season demand and accelerating spring category transitions in those markets.
The Northeast sees elevated precipitation this week (+1.8” above normal, +2.8” total), driven by Hernando’s passage and lingering moisture. This extends traffic disruption beyond the storm’s initial impact.
Winter Storm Hernando Validation
The pre-storm surge materialized as predicted—grocery and home center traffic spiked 30-50% Friday/Saturday ahead of Sunday’s snowfall.
Full analysis here: Winter Storm Hernando: The Retail Surge is Happening Right Now.
$1.5B in Weekend Sales Pulled Forward as 34,500 Retailers See 45% Traffic Surge Ahead of Sunday Snowfall
Home Depot & Lowe’s Q4 FY25 Earnings Previews
Home Depot reports Tuesday, Feb 24 (before market)
Lowe’s reports Wednesday, Feb 25 (before market)
G2 Weather Signals
Home Depot (HD): 50/100 — Neutral (Grade C)
Lowe’s (LOW): 50/100 — Neutral (Grade C)
Q4 FY25 Weather Summary:
Monthly volatility masked quarterly neutrality. November warmth (+3°F to +6°F), December volatility (cold early, warm late), and January’s cold snap (Winter Storm Fern) created weekly traffic swings but averaged to near-normal conditions across all regions (±2.5°F). Weather was background noise, not an earnings driver.
What to Listen For:
“Weekly volatility in traffic” = validates neutral signal
“January cold impacted exterior Pro work” = acknowledges late-quarter Pro disruption from extreme cold/ice
“Pro channel recovered late January” = contractors resuming after freeze/ice cleared
“January late-month cold drove emergency prep” = Winter Storm Fern validation
Absence of major weather commentary = confirmed neutral consolidated impact
Earnings beats/misses will be driven mostly by Pro channel strength, big-ticket spending, inventory management, and margin execution—not by weather.
Next Week — Week Ending March 7, 2026
Spring returns with force.
