In 131 Years of Records, California Never Had a Warmer Q4. The Street Is Still Bullish on Ross Stores.
G2 Weather Intelligence | Pre-Earnings Analysis | February 27, 2026
Ross Stores and Target both report Q4 earnings on Tuesday, the critical holiday quarter. Here's what the weather data says about each, and why the Street may have them backwards.
The Signal Summary
Ross Stores (ROST — Nasdaq): 12/100 | D- | Severe headwind
California and the West — 28% of Ross's store base — faced record warmth and above-normal precipitation for the entire quarter. For an off-mall seasonal apparel retailer, warm weather kills demand, and rain kills foot traffic. California delivered both in Q4.
Target (TGT — NYSE): 63/100 | B | Meaningful tailwind
A cold Northeast December in Target's largest region activated seasonal apparel demand and pre-storm grocery runs simultaneously during peak holiday. Cold weather and storm threats are bullish for Target's format in a way that they cannot be for Ross. The Street is cautious heading in. The weather signal says they shouldn't be.
The Asymmetry
Here's the thing — the Street is most bullish on the retailer with the
