Kohl’s Q2 Beat: Solid Execution Sets the Stage for a Fall "Weather-Driven" Upside Surprise
Softer May sales from chilly, wet weather gave way to stronger June and July — now Kohl’s is primed to ride a major demand lift when colder comps arrive this fall
“We saw our sales progressively improve throughout the quarter, with May having the softest performance due in part to colder, wetter weather over the last couple of weeks of the month, including the Memorial Day holiday, which negatively affected our spring seasonal businesses.” — Michael Bender, KSS CEO
Kohl’s (KSS) reported Q2 comparable sales down 4.2%, with net sales down 5.1% year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.56, ahead of expectations, and gross margin expanded by 30 basis points to 39.9%.
Management emphasized that the quarter was stronger than expected, but weather played a clear role in shaping results:
May softness: Colder, wetter weather, including the Memorial Day holiday, suppressed spring seasonal categories (shorts, tees, sandals). This was the weakest month of the quarter.
June and July recovery: Warmer, drier conditions supported sales momentum, culminating in flat comps in July. Proprietary brands and digital were key outperformers.
Kohl’s estimated that the unfavorable May weather cost the company tens of millions in lost seasonal sales, but better June/July conditions offset the drag.
Also see: Kohl’s shares jump 24% after big earnings beat
Weather-Driven Implications for Fall
What’s notable is that Kohl’s executed well once weather normalized in June and July — a signal that the company is in strong position to benefit when conditions align with consumer demand.
This matters because of what’s ahead:
October 2024 was abnormally warm, suppressing demand for cold-weather categories such as outerwear, footwear, and home heating.
October 2025 is likely to be colder year-over-year, creating one of the strongest “easy comp” setups in retail.
That shift provides a clear weather-driven demand tailwind for Kohl’s assortment in categories like apparel, accessories, and home goods.
Relative to Peers
Compared to Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW), Kohl’s is less exposed to weather volatility in June/July because its assortment is less tied to outdoor seasonal projects.
Where HD and LOW benefited disproportionately from lawn/garden demand, Kohl’s results underscore its greater dependence on fall and holiday weather patterns.
This sets Kohl’s up as one of the biggest relative winners if October delivers colder weather versus last year’s abnormal warmth.
G2 Weather Intelligence Takeaway
Q2 impact: May weather created a drag, but Kohl’s adapted and delivered stronger June/July results.
Forward look: The company is now positioned for a weather-driven boost in October — precisely when discretionary demand will need support against tariff-related cost pressures.
Investor and retail takeaway: Kohl’s ability to execute through June/July strengthens the case for meaningful weather upside in Q3 comps and earnings, driven by apparel and seasonal goods.
☁️ Bottom line: Kohl’s Q2 results show disciplined execution, but the real opportunity lies ahead. With a colder October setup versus last year’s record warmth, weather could be the silver lining that powers Kohl’s through a challenging macro environment.