The Fall Weather Dividend That Shouldn’t Surprise You — But Might Surprise Wall Street
Cooler back-to-school and a colder Halloween week, were all expected--the retail results may catch the market off guard.
“At Burlington, we are particularly sensitive to warmer weather in Q3. In October, our cold-weather businesses represent almost 1/4 of our sales.” —Michael O’Sullivan, CEO / Burlington Coat Factory CEO
NOAA’s weekly temperature dataset—the backbone of this analysis—went dark during the government shutdown. That meant this report had to wait.
Now that the data is finally restored, we can see the full retail Q3 pattern (August-October), and it essentially confirms my thesis: cooler-than-last-year conditions created a stronger setup for seasonal retail demand.
The picture that emerges isn’t subtle. It’s exactly what we expected.
How Q3 Unfolded: The Data Behind the Story
A cooler back-to-school period set the tone
Late August delivered cooler-than-last-year temperatures across several key regions, especially the Northeast, Central, and West. This is the moment retailers care about: back-to-school is the opening act of…
